Timothy Morano
July 28, 2026 10:00

AAVE is holding at $96.82 after a edged sell-off at 4.35%, but whale accumulation in futures and rising open interest signal that this decline is more of a breakout than a breakout – a recovery of $100.39…

Market Context: Why AAVE Is at a Decision Point Right Now

AAVE just lost 4.35% in one session, rebounding from $102 intraday and hitting a low of $96 before gaining preliminary fundamentals. At first glance, it looks like distribution. Look closer and the picture becomes more refined. Price continues to hold above the 7-, 20- and 50-day moving averages – a structural ladder for a market that hasn’t crashed yet. SMA 7 at $96.26 essentially acts as a live support line and AAVE currently rests on it.

The real problem is overhead costs. The 200-day SMA at $103.81 is looming, and today’s intraday push to $102 was beaten back before it could even be tested. Any attempted rally leads to selling against macrotrend resistance and until AAVE closes above $103.81 on significant volume, the path of least resistance remains uncertain. Blockchain.news is tracking the resurgence of DeFi lending protocols through 2026, and AAVE remains the flagship – meaning any broader DeFi rotation will be here first, for better or for worse.

Alignment of indicators: technicians say “wait”, not chase

Momentum has stagnated. The MACD histogram has flattened to zero – the MACD signal and lines are on top of each other, which means that the bullish momentum that previously fueled the rally has been fully exploited. There is no fuel left in the tank until buyers express their opinion or sellers force a flush. With an RSI of 56, there is also no opportunity to take advantage of an oversold sale – the price is neutral, not stretched or collapsed.

The image of the Bollinger Bands requires the most attention. AAVE’s %B of 0.66 places the price in the upper half of the band structure, with an upper limit of $101.42. Today’s intraday high of $102 briefly breached that ceiling before being rejected – a textbook intraday market exhaustion signal. With a daily ATR of $4.31, each key level – resistance at $100.39 and support at $94.86 – is within the one-day range. The stochastic divergence between %K at 62 and %D at 49 is historically a fingerprint of the market that will soon take a direction and follow it. The setup is tighter than the price action suggests, and Blockchain.news readers following flows in the DeFi sector should apply the next 48 hours as a guide.

Whales and analyst targets: Astute money doesn’t work

Here’s the detail that changes the narrative. Despite the price drop of 4.35%, interest in AAVE futures increased by 2.51% in 24 hours. Falling price, rising open interest – this is opening up recent compact positions or, more likely given the positioning data, shrewd money accumulating long exposure to weakness. Taker’s buy/sell ratio of 1.22 confirms that aggressive buy-side flow, rather than panic selling, dominates real-time order execution.

The positioning division is extremely even. Retail traders are 57% long, which in itself would be a contradictory fade signal. But the top traders and whales are 58.4% long – basically the same lean. When shrewd money and dumb money are in line, contrarian trading quickly becomes crowded. The funding rate of 0.0079% is almost neutral, so the derivatives book does not yet show an impending liquidation cascade.

When it comes to published analyst targets, the difference is gigantic enough to question the methodology of at least one of them. CoinCodex calling for $100.93 by the end of the year is barely a call – that’s a 4.2% move in five months, which is hype. Traders Union’s August target of $136.9 – up 44% in roughly four weeks – is either a macro compelling call based on a catalyst not currently noticeable in the data, or it is a model that has not stress tested the 200-SMA ceiling. No single goal should anchor your transaction. The real levels that matter are $103.96 (robust resistance, convergence with the 200-SMA) and $92.90 (robust support).

Strategic Positioning: Bull Case and Bear Case have clear triggers

The bull case has one flash point: a daily close above $100.39. This level is not just immediate resistance – it is a psychological recovery of the $100 level that triggers the momentum algorithms and paves the way for a test of the $103.81-103.96 confluence zone. A immaculate hold above $104 would shift the macro structure from “below 200-SMA” to “macro trend recovery,” which is a qualitative improvement that attracts a different category of buyers. The derivatives market is pre-prepared for this move. Rising OI, whale longs, aggressive inflow of buy-side takers – the table is set.

The bear case launches right at $94.86. A daily close below this level not only breaks immediate support – it puts robust support at $92.90 in its sights, and beyond it, the 50 SMA at $85.53 becomes the next logical resting point after a true capitulation. This is a 12% decline from current levels, entirely achievable in a risk-free cryptocurrency session. A neutral financing rate actually makes this scenario more risky than it seems – there are no “tight shorts” to cushion the deformation, and a sudden macro change could accelerate this move.

Assigning probabilities based on available data: 65% chance that AAVE will approach the $100-$104 test within 72 hours due to derivatives positioning and holding above the short-term moving average cluster. A 35% chance of the broader market softening or failing to recover $98.43, shifts the setup to bearish and causes the price to rise from $94.86 towards $92.90. The level to watch at the opening is the pivot at $98.43 – staying above this level allows the bull scenario to breathe, and losing it during the day definitely shifts the momentum to the sell side. Follow everything via Blockchain.news as DeFi sector catalysts continue to develop around AAVE’s dominance in the lending market.

Image source: Shutterstock

Dariusz Baru
July 26, 2026 09:46

The LDO is stuck at its own pivot point with the MACD histogram pointing to exactly zero and the shrewd money quietly loading up longs against retail clients who are leaning tiny – a confirmed break above the $0.38 target…

Instant setup

LDO does something that investors hate: nothing. The token lost a modest -1.41% in the last session and remains dead at $0.37 – its own pivot point – with the MACD histogram pointing to a perfect zero. It’s not indecision, it’s a coil spring. Under the hood, the design is actually more constructive than the flat lines suggest. LDO quotes are above the 200-day SMA ($0.36), and the short-term EMA 12 has already exceeded the EMA 26 ($0.34). The Bollinger %B at 0.67 is trading comfortably in the upper half of the range, moving higher towards the upper band at $0.41.

Binance’s 24-hour spot volume was a skeleton $1.1 million – this market isn’t exactly on fire. However, the bid/ask ratio for futures traders of 1.20 tells a different story: buyers are not leaving, they are accumulating quietly while the spot tape sleeps. As Blockchain.news has observed in the liquid staking sector, low-volume consolidations in DeFi governance tokens often precede outsized directional moves. The question is no If LDO goes beyond this – it is which way.

Key levels revealed

The level map here is tight and unforgiving. $0.38 is the wall to break down – that’s where the 7 SMA is and exactly where the price was capped before this session. Clear $0.38 on volume and you’ll see clear air all the way to the upper Bollinger Band at $0.41, a target that doesn’t coincide with any major moving average, meaning the path there is frictionless once the breakout triggers.

On the other hand, $0.36 is a line in the sand. The SMA 200 converges directly at this level, making it a structural bottom that bulls absolutely cannot afford to hit on a daily close. In the event of a break at $0.36, the 20 SMA at $0.35 offers a miniature additional catch, but below that the chart is barren until the 50 SMA at $0.30 – a brutal 19% lower than the current price. An ATR of $0.03 means that this token routinely fluctuates by 8% or more in a single session, so the entire range from $0.36 to $0.41 is within normal daily variance. Neither bulls nor bears should feel safe and sound now.

Both immediate support and pivot support are at $0.37, which is exactly where the price is trading. This is a defined balance point and someone is going to break the tie.

Sentiment versus reality

The outside prediction crowd doesn’t offer much of an advantage. CoinCodex puts a 5-day target at $0.3801 – basically a flat amount, maybe +2.7% from there. CoinPriceForecast is more ambitious and will be $0.45 at the end of the year, an enhance of 21.6% in five months. None of them should move your position size by a single dollar. These are extrapolations, not catalysts.

What really matters is the division in the positioning of derivatives. Binance futures retail investors have a net tiny position of 54.2% – they are actively mitigating this rebound. However, the top traders, high-volume accounts that Binance classifies separately, net-longed 52.1%. This discrepancy is the most actionable signal in the entire dataset. It’s a textbook pre-squeeze setup: retail tilted in the wrong direction, shrewd money calmly placed to level out. Open interest has increased by 2.01% in 24 hours, while the price has fallen – this means that fresh positions are deepening. Given the dominance of the aggressive buyer, the weight of this fresh OI is likely to be greater. Blockchain.news noted that ETH-correlated assets such as LDO tend to absorb shrewd money accumulation in these serene areas before following the Ethereum macrotrend, and the broader ETH structure in the second half of 2026 remains constructive.

The complete silence from cryptocurrency KOLs on Twitter is itself a signal worth reading. When a token goes serene on the radio, there is no crowd to chase the momentum – meaning the next decisive move will have the majority tipped in the wrong direction, just as retail tiny positioning is currently suggesting.

Practical trading strategy

Two scenarios, one clear mistake. Here is the framework:

Scenario A – Long (60% probability): Entry zone between $0.36 and $0.37, right at SMA 200 and the pivot confluence. Tough stop with a daily close below $0.35 – this is the middle Bollinger Band and the line where the bull trend formally breaks down, approximately -5.4% from the middle entry point. The first target is $0.39, an immediate resistance cluster, giving an initial upside of +5.4%. Full target is $0.41, upper Bollinger Band, +10.8%. This is a pure risk/reward ratio of 1:2, acceptable considering the shrewd money’s long bias and taker buy dominance. If the $0.38 volume exceeds the $3 million point mark, the position warrants an enhance, not a decrease.

Scenario B – Low Trigger (40% probability): A confirmed daily close below $0.36 reverses the entire structure. A support breakdown of the 200 SMA becomes an entry signal – a tiny retest at $0.36 from the bottom, a stop at $0.38, with a target of $0.30 (SMA 50). This represents a move of 16% at a rate of 5.4%, making it likely a better risk/reward trade if it stabilizes. Don’t get ahead of it; wait for closure.

Cancellations are surgical in nature: bulls die at daily closes below $0.35, bears die at daily closes above $0.38. There is no ambiguity in this setup. With daily spot trading volume of just $1.1M compared to $18.9M open, this market is futures driven and slippage of any significant amount is real – scale your trades in tranches rather than triggering individual block orders, otherwise you will turn the market against you before the trade even breathes a breath.

The setup is neat. The advantage goes to whoever waits for the level to speak first.

Image source: Shutterstock

The world’s largest Bitcoin (BTC) conference, Bitcoin 2023, held in Miami, Florida, took place without much fanfare this year. Previous conferences have announced nation-state adoption, mass integration of cryptocurrencies in the United States, and islands and territories around the world adopting Bitcoin.

Nevertheless, at Bitcoin 2023, one partnership with a potentially significant impact on the world’s 15th largest economy went unnoticed.

We are content to announce our collaboration with Grupo Salinas. I look forward to the positive impact of this collaboration. #Bitcoin #bitcoiconference2023 https://t.co/rkAjWnmKsK pic.twitter.com/yWIWc6751B— IBEX (@PoweredbyIBEX) May 18, 2023

José Lemus, CEO of Ibex Mercado, closed the Bitcoin Industry Day 2023. He announced a partnership with Grupo Salinas, one of the largest corporate conglomerates in Mexico. In tiny, the collaboration would enable millions of Mexicans to pay their internet bills with popular telecommunications company Total Play using the Bitcoin Lightning network.

Most importantly, the Salinas Group owns dozens of companies throughout Mexico. Its billionaire founder, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, is the third richest person in the country and a known Bitcoin maximalist.

Not only has the Bitcoin Lightning payment integration already brought Bitcoin adoption to millions of Mexicans, but as Lemus explained to Cointelegraph, Total Play is one tiny retailer that is part of the massive Salinas conglomerate:

“Imagine if Best Buy, Bank of America, Fox News and an NFL team were owned by the same person. In the future, all of them would have Lightning capabilities.”

Lemus explained that this is just the “tip of the iceberg of what will happen in Mexico” as more Bitcoin and Lightning integrations and on- and off-ramps attract more Bitcoin business. Speaking via video link, Lemus explained that fiat and Bitcoin can interact more freely in Mexico:

“Let’s say you have a wallet and you want to share Mexican pesos in Mexico, or you have a currency exchange and you want to settle balances for your customers in Mexico. You can do this through CoinPro or Grupo Salinas.”

This partnership marks the beginning of Lightning functionality across Grupo Salinas. There will be a Lightning app “for employees, a super app for football teams to do something similar to what we have with Perth Heat, where we drive fan engagement in an innovative way.”

Australia’s Perth Heat baseball team has adopted the Bitcoin standard in 2021, with players earning in Bitcoin and “Sats4Stats”, in which players receive Bitcoin for hitting home runs. Additionally, fan engagement activities leverage the Lightning Network. During baseball games, for example, “When a player steals a base, a QR code flashes on the screen and the first people to scan it get a satoshi,” Lemus explained.

Players can send satoshi directly to players during Perth Heat baseball games. Source: PerthHeat.com.au

In its first year of operation, Perth Heat players earned an extra 1% thanks to Bitcoin, Lemus said on stage at Bitcoin 2023. “It’s still early” for such technology, but the extra 1% is already encouraging.

Grupo Salinas owns the Mexican soccer clubs Mazatlán and Club Puebla. Fans will soon be able to receive free money – in the form of Bitcoin or satoshi – by simply scanning a QR code on the stadium screen when a player scores a goal, just like in the case of Perth Heat.

A snapshot of some of Grupo Salinas’ brands spanning retail, banking, sports and advertising. Source: GrupoSalinas.com

Ibex Mercado understands the enormous financial inclusion opportunities that the Lightning Network offers. Lemus founded Ibex in neighboring Guatemala, and two years earlier, the company provided Lightning Network integration for Chivo’s wallet in El Salvador, which successfully provided banking to millions of El Salvadorans.

Lemus explained that broader adoption of Bitcoin could improve the lives of unbanked and underserved populations. Moreover, financial inclusion goes beyond banking the unbanked:

“It’s the ability to raise funds for your company. It’s the ability to open yourself to a broader market. And that’s what true financial inclusion means to me.”

Finally, Lemus emphasized Mexico’s potential as a Bitcoin destination: “I think Mexico will be the place where this develops.” More broadly, 2022 was a promising year for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency adoption in the country, from cryptocurrency remittance companies founded in Mexico to the expansion of cryptocurrency exchanges.

Related: Bitcoin adoption by Guatemalan sellers is increasing the number of BTC tattoos at once

Does this mean that cryptocurrency enthusiasts will soon be able to live off Bitcoin like in El Salvador? Lemus replied:

“Let’s say you spend most of your life in Bitcoin. I think 18 months is a reasonable goal in which you could spend most of your life. But obviously things like taxes and maybe rent won’t work on Bitcoin yet.”

Likewise, the partnership with Grupo Salinas required 18 months of work and preparation, Lemus said. In Mexico, there are more partnerships and projects on the horizon, although it is too early to share details, Lemus concluded.

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With the Bitcoin (BTC) halving event less than a year away, several financial giants have filed to create a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) spot fund – a scenario last seen before the 2020-2021 bull market.

Institutional interest in the sector declined following the collapse of major crypto giants such as FTX during the prolonged crypto winter of 2022. Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies were largely sideways as several cryptocurrency exchanges came under regulatory scrutiny.

However, following the news that major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Valkyrie and others had applied to list a spot Bitcoin ETF, the price of BTC rose to over $30,000, once again encouraging investment in the cryptocurrency market.

Monthly Bitcoin price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

While several institutional giants have filed applications for cash Bitcoin ETFs with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the past, all have either withdrawn their applications or faced outright rejection by the regulator.

The SEC approved the first Bitcoin futures ETF in October 2021 – the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF – which debuted on the Fresh York Stock Exchange on October 19, 2021.

However, the filing of a spot Bitcoin ETF by asset management giant BlackRock has increased the chances of SEC approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF. That’s according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who gives BlackRock a 50% chance of getting its spot Bitcoin ETF approved.

The latest wave of ETF filings began on June 16 with BlackRock filing with the SEC. WisdomTree, Invesco and Valkyrie also filed in the following days and weeks.

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On June 28, ARK Invest, which had previously filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF in June 2021, changed its filing to make it similar to BlackRock’s. The next day, asset manager Fidelity Investments also filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF. A total of seven institutional giants have applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF so far.

Some industry observers believe that 2023-2024 will be crucial for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Robert Quartly-Janeiro, chief strategy officer of cryptocurrency exchange Bitrue, told Cointelegraph that the time is right because “inflation is rampant and the money supply is ambiguous, interest rates are high and companies are reporting decent revenues, which means cryptocurrency will need to operate in an economic environment where rates and inflation are key factors.”

Institutional trust in Bitcoin

Bitcoin has weathered the aftermath of 2022 exceptionally well and has recovered more than half of its price decline during the bear market, largely due to continued institutional investor interest in the asset.

Indeed, there are many more institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market today compared to just a year ago. Until 2022, institutions kept a secure distance from the market, and even MicroStrategy stopped its routine BTC purchases.

Many gigantic funds and companies have become interested in cryptocurrencies and are exploring their potential to invest in them.

Despite market volatility, global institutions show constant interest in cryptocurrencies. Bitfinex Chief Technology Officer Paolo Ardoino told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin represents enormous value in terms of utility and unique nature as a perfectly sparse resource that can never be depreciated. He said: “Most traditional financial institutions realize this,” adding: “It is not surprising that at a time of record inflation in both major industrialized economies and emerging markets, markets have a better understanding of the value of Bitcoin.”

“Recent new uses of Bitcoin spot ETFs by some of the world’s most important asset managers demonstrate that there is demand for Bitcoin from both investors and issuers, and this will only increase. In addition to demonstrating increased institutional demand for Bitcoin, this will also attract new retail investors and encourage broader participation,” Ardoino said.

While many institutions have distanced themselves from cryptocurrencies over the past year, much of this has been due to the FTX-induced public relations disaster, and bank failures have further exacerbated this. Richard Gardner, CEO of Modulus, told Cointelegraph that institutions anticipated the crypto industry slowdown and chose to hide and avoid the political and public response after FTX, thinking they would be able to reconsider their decision before cryptocurrencies surge.

“We are at the point where they are starting to weigh the risks versus the benefits of returning to the fight. Most institutions are likely to be much more cautious given the FTX disaster. They will largely be repositioned based on the regulatory environment. As governments build out the full regulatory system and bureaucrats decide how they plan to interpret the law, institutions will assess their response and move forward accordingly,” Gardner said.

MicroStrategy – a leading Bitcoin investor and one of the driving forces behind the institutional adoption of BTC in 2020 – continued its Bitcoin buying spree in 2023. When the company suffered bulky losses as the BTC price dropped below $16,500, CEO Michael Saylor maintained that he had no intention of selling and would continue to add more BTC to his treasury. MicroStrategy currently holds 152,333 BTC acquired for approximately $4.52 billion at an average price of $29,668 per Bitcoin.

Institutional inflows are reinvigorating bull market optimism

While the 2017 bull market was driven by retail interest, the 2020-2021 bull market was driven by institutional inflows, such as MicroStrategy and Tesla, and many other publicly traded companies that added Bitcoin to their balance sheet.

Gracy Chen, managing director of cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, told Cointelegraph that institutions will act quickly when they see “stable and predictable retail interest.” Chen said: “The cumulative impact of institutions exceeds that of individual investors and therefore they will continue to be the driving force behind cryptocurrency market capitalization growth.”

She also highlighted that growing institutional interest could fuel further cryptocurrency adoption, helping to usher in another bull run:

“Analysts expect that if BlackRock’s ETF application is approved alone, the price of Bitcoin could double. Given BlackRock’s potential institutional investor base and influence, the approval of their BTC spot ETF will have a greater impact on the development of the cryptocurrency market. With the BTC application, the spot ETF will likely inspire competition among relevant financial firms. This will direct more funds from traditional markets to Web3.”

In addition to institutional pressures, there has been major development in the retail market, with Hong Kong opening its doors for cryptocurrency exchanges to offer services to retail customers. Ben Caselin, vice president of cryptocurrency exchange MaskEX, told Cointelegraph that during the previous bull market, “US institutions were the main drivers of growth, but they were probably not ready to get deeply involved and did not behave differently from retail, essentially chasing yields and acting on hype.”

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“I expect this bull market to be driven again by Asia, perhaps with Hong Kong leading the region, but based on my personal observations I also expect significant momentum from the Middle East, particularly the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich jurisdictions,” he added.

With Bitcoin’s next halving scheduled for April 2024, growing interest from institutional investors is seen as a bullish sign for Bitcoin’s price and the broader cryptocurrency market. Historically, the bull run began in the run-up to the Bitcoin halving, during which the BTC reward amount per block halved every four years. The scarcity factor is driving prices higher as retail traders and institutional giants rush to add Bitcoin to their portfolios.

Luisa Crawford
July 22, 2026 09:58

AAVE is trading at $95.36, collapsed just below the psychological wall of $100, and the MACD momentum has completely dropped – bulls have a chance at $105.96 if they confidently reach $97.79, but…

Instant setup

AAVE is holding at $95.36 with a daily gain of 0.17%. This isn’t serene – it’s compression. When price remains flat after a recovery and the MACD histogram drops to zero, you are not looking at stability; you’re looking at a tug of war where neither side has blinked yet. The buyers who pushed AAVE out of the $81 zone ran out of fuel and the asset is currently oscillating just below its trading axis at $95.81, which is a slightly bearish intraday signal.

An RSI of 58 is the least captivating number here. Mid range, nothing confirmed. More telling is the stochastic reversal – %K at 55 pushes above %D at 44, representing a short-term tilt to the upside. But the entire setup is based on Binance’s spot volume of around $20 million. It’s slim. Slender volume in resistive compression is where fakes arise. As reported and tracked in the DeFi space by Blockchain.news, AAVE’s rebound from the early 2026 lows is technically correct, but this specific moment requires confirmation before deciding on the size.

The daily range of $98.24 to $93.84 says that the market already knows exactly where the battleground is. Every trader observing this situation is observing the same $97-$100 corridor.

Key levels revealed

The moving average structure is the best news bulls have right now. The SMA 7, SMA 20 and EMA stack models are all well below current prices and provide a fit separation – the scaffolding for a real economic recovery. The starter was SMA 50 at $81.88. This is the constructive part of the picture.

The problem is the above. Between $95.36 and the 200-day SMA at $105.96, there is a tight glove of resistance that rarely dissipates in a single session without a macrocatalyst. Immediate resistance is $97.79. The upper Bollinger Band is parked at $99.55. Robust resistance then emerges at $100.21 – psychological, algorithmic selling triggers and options positioning converge around $100. A %B reading of 0.70 means that price is already in the upper third of the current Bollinger range. You can push up to $99.55, but without the volume catalyst, this is where the team drops the price dramatically.

On the other hand, immediate support at $93.39 is the first real line. If you lose that, the next test will be the SMA 7/SMA 20 cluster at $91.41 to $92.55. An ATR of $4.92 means a single floating session can cover almost the entire distance between the current price and either extreme. This is your daily risk envelope – treat it accordingly.

Sentiment versus reality

The two analyst forecasts on the table couldn’t be further apart, and that discrepancy alone is informative. CoinCodex, posting four days ago, set a year-end target of $100.34 for AAVE – essentially calling for 5% growth over the next five months for the DeFi blue chip. This is not a price prediction; it’s a hedge. Traders Union moved to the opposite pole just yesterday, forecasting $199.62 by October 2026, a 118% gain in about ten weeks. This number is what the volatility model-based algorithm spits out when fed historical DeFi pump cycles – it’s not a hand-crafted thesis. None of the figures can be directly traded without a structure to support them.

Derivatives data is where the real signal lies. Open interest is down 4.11% in the last 24 hours – this is not accumulation, this is position clearing. Faint hands or short-term traders withdraw when the price stops at resistance. However, the clever money – the top traders tracked on Binance futures – are 55.9% long compared to 44.1% compact. This is a significant weight loss. Retail is almost perfectly balanced at 53.4/46.6, meaning the money conscious and the crowd are not equal. Historically, when clever money diverges from the retail balance at a technical turning point, clever money is usually right. As Blockchain.news describes, DeFi protocols like Aave have repeatedly rewarded patient accumulation at precisely these structural points.

The 0.0063% funding rate is essentially flat – no crowded long trades being built or no squeeze setup being telegraphed. Taker’s sell/buy ratio of 0.9503 shows sellers with a marginal advantage in terms of aggressive order flow over the last hour. Bottom line: Conviction-weighted money is cautiously long, the crowd is undecided, and aggressive sellers have a slim edge. This is not a bearish setup – it is an undecided setup. And indecisive setups at the resistance of the upper Bollinger band are resolved with a flush or breakout. There is no side exit.

Practical trading strategy

The primary trade includes a long position with a confirmed hourly close above $97.79 with volume rising above the daily average of $20 million. The first target is $100.21 – that’s where the initial shot comes in, no questions asked. If AAVE closes the daily candle above $100.21 on significant volume, it will open the path to the 200-day SMA at $105.96, which will become Target 2. A rebound of the 200 SMA would be a structural inflection point, changing the AAVE narrative from “recovering assets” to “retrending assets.” This distinction is of great importance when setting a time frame. The difficult stop on this long position is below $93.39 – a close below this level signals that the upper Bollinger rejection was real and a move back towards $91.41 is the path of least resistance.

The contrarian trade will fade away if AAVE tests the $97.79-$99.55 zone and the MACD histogram remains zero-plated while volume remains anemic. This marks a acute return to $93.39 with a acute stop above $100.50. The risk/reward of a fade is less compelling than a long breakout, but can be done on compact duration trades.

Probability distribution here: 65% chance AAVE tests the $97.79-100.21 zone within 48-72 hours given MA’s constructive structure and clever money saving. Under this scenario, there is a 40% probability that the $100.21 level will give way and $105.96 will be reached within two weeks – in this scenario, the Trade Association’s directional view is confirmed, if not its exact size. The remaining 35% probability leads to a downside resolution – compression falls, $93.39 fails, and the $91.41 support zone becomes another “buy the dip” setup. Blockchain.news traders observing this setup should keep this adverse scenario in mind as a falling OI and flat MACD in the same session is a technical signature of a potential false break, not a confirmed one.

The $100 grip isn’t just psychological. Every option expiry, every algorithmic resistance layer, every systematic selling program is parked there. AAVE does not exceed $100 – it either breaks it by force or gets hit difficult. Choose your side, adjust the size accordingly and let the levels do the talking.

Image source: Shutterstock

Google Cloud is the latest company to show interest in Bitcoin (BTC) Lightning. The $225 billion cloud and data service recently partnered with voltageage, an infrastructure provider specializing in the Bitcoin Lightning Network.

The partnership will enable one of the world’s largest cloud computing providers to deploy Bitcoin-based services globally while helping to grow Volt’s business. Graham Krizek, CEO of Volt, told Cointelegraph:

“Voltage uses Google Cloud to serve our customers around the world. So we have larger customers who need nodes deployed in specific geographies such as the UK and Asia.”

Conversely, Google may exploit “Voltage” as a sort of external Bitcoin and lightning team. He said: “We handle this business for them, actually helping companies interested in adding Bitcoin or Lightning to their services.”

The announcement received widespread attention on social media and reflects Google’s growing understanding and acceptance of Bitcoin and Lightning. But most importantly, the implications of the partnership run deeper.

Christopher Calicott, managing director of venture capital firm Tramell Venture Partners, told Cointelegraph: “We had some people in the backchannel who were ex-Googlers […] saying it’s something unexpected [social media] engagement that is sure to get people’s attention on Google.”

Moreover, Google’s open approach to Lightning is diametrically opposed to that of its competitor, Apple. Apple recently removed Damus, a Lightning-friendly decentralized social media protocol, from the App Store, demonstrating its distaste for Lightning. Calicott explained that the tech world may be interested in Lightning:

“There is now growing and widespread corporate activity tinkering with Lightning in particular. If they are adjacent to payments, they would ignore Lightning at their own peril.”

Google Cloud operates under the patronage of its parent company, Alphabet. The Google Pay payment platform boasts hundreds of millions of users in over 15 countries.

Since 2020, Google’s investment arm, Google Ventures (GV), has shown great interest in blockchain and Web3 companies, as well as Bitcoin.

GV participated in a $6 million seed round for Voltage in 2021. For Calicott, such a gigantic player’s interest in the crypto space could be a sign of growing momentum:

“I hate to over-index any particular corporation, but for me, as with everything in life, when people put their money where their mouth is, it sends a very strong signal of what they’re focused on.”

Krizek agreed: “I think it’s a really big signal for more Bitcoin-focused strategies to be introduced, particularly among Google, but also just larger organizations.”

Despite Apple discontinuing its Lightning-friendly Damus app – much to the chagrin of former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey – Lightning continues to gain popularity among billion-dollar companies around the world. One of Mexico’s largest companies has begun experimenting with Lightning, while two major cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance and Coinbase, recently promised Lightning integration.

Related: The World’s Largest Bitcoin Conferences: Decentralization with Cointelegraph

Nevertheless, it’s still early and “we have to watch it as it grows,” Calicott noted. Krizek, who has seen many of Bitcoin’s ups and downs while participating in the Bitcoin space since 2012, emphasized why the partnership is vital:

“As we start to introduce these organizations more to Bitcoin and its capabilities through Lightning, I think we’ve already caught their attention with the strong interest and demand we’ve had because of it.”

He added that more services should be introduced in the near future, complemented by Bitcoin education efforts.

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Jessie A. Ellis
July 21, 2026 09:57

AAVE enters a critical resistance cluster between $97.75 and $100.37 with absolutely zero MACD momentum – sharp money is calmly loading longs, but aggressive sellers are dominating…

AAVE Technical Reality Check

The price at $95.14 is comfortably above the 7-, 20- and 50-day moving averages – pure bullish stack on the surface. But that’s where the tidy narrative ends. The MACD histogram has reached zero, which means that the fuel for the breakout from the base $81 has already been fully spent. Buyers got AAVE here and are standing still, catching their breath.

An RSI of 58 is the definition of no man’s land – not overbought enough to scream “take profits”, not overbought enough to be added with confidence. The Bollinger Band position at 0.71 puts the price deep in the upper range, and the upper limit of the band is $99.40. When you combine this with immediate resistance at $97.75 and robust resistance at $100.37, you have a concrete wall that AAVE needs to bulldoze through. The psychological round number at $100 and this supply overhead cluster are not a coincidence – it’s all trade.

No one is willing to come spotless about the broader structural reality: AAVE is still 10.4% below the 200-day SMA at $106.30. It cannot be called a bull trend until this line is reclaimed. This is a recovery in a bear market – impressive compared to the $81.44 support level, but a recovery nonetheless. As Blockchain.news tracks, DeFi protocol valuations across the sector have weathered exactly this kind of general supply battle in 2026, and the AAVE chart is a textbook case.

Volume and price alignment

This is where the setup gets really conflicted. The global long to compact ratio is a coin toss: 50.2% long versus 49.8% compact – there is no directional confidence in retail at the moment. Look at the cohort of top traders, whales and institutional desks, and the picture changes: 54.4% are long versus 45.6% compact. This is a significant departure from sharp money.

The problem is that the tape sings a different song. Taker’s bid/ask ratio of 0.8944 tells us that aggressive sellers are ahead of aggressive buyers right now – and this kind of persistent imbalance isn’t causing the market to crash, it’s actually bleeding it desiccated. A tardy, grinding and frustrating fade that chews up long notes and generates exactly zero FOMO. Open interest is also down -0.54% in 24 hours, which means this move is not supported by novel futures confidence – it is a holding pattern, not a rising one.

Financing at 0.0055% is essentially neutral, which is both reassuring and deflationary. No amount of compact squeeze will accelerate the breakout. You don’t have to blush to catalyze a rebound. The next 48-72 hours come down to a basic question: do sharp longs absorb the aggressive band selling and force a breakout, or do sellers exhaust the bid and push it back below $92?

The context of the expert perspective

The analyst community is deeply divided and the news itself is informative. CoinCodex’s year-end target of $95.03 effectively calls today’s price a ceiling for all of 2026 – with the price unchanged, it assumes there are no catalysts in prices. LBank’s July 18 forecast of $90.82 is no longer valid given today’s 4.29% gain, but it retroactively confirms the $90-91 zone as real support that the market appreciates.

Traders Union then estimates it will reach $199.62 by October, a 118% augment in this case. This is not an imaginary number in crypto, but it requires AAVE to survive the 200-day SMA, maintain momentum through the third quarter, and benefit from a significantly more favorable DeFi liquidity environment than what it is currently pricing in. Blockchain.news is closely monitoring regulatory and on-chain revenue developments for major DeFi protocols in 2026 and the gap between the Trade Association’s forecast and today’s headquarters AAVE requires a true fundamental catalyst, not just technical drift.

One noteworthy signal: Zero revised KOL forecasts hit the tape in the last 24 hours during a 4.29% gain day. When there is silence on Twitter, it means that either influential accounts are already set and not showing their hands, or they simply do not believe in the sustainability of this move.

Price path in the future

Here’s the proposition: 60/40 in favor of a pullback before any continuation of the rally.

Basic bearish scenario for the next 7-10 days – immediate resistance at $97.75 closes this rally, taker ratio remains below 1.0, and AAVE returns to pivot support at $90.37. A daily close below $92 opens the door to a robust support band at $88-$85.61. With an ATR of $4.93 per day, this is a 3-4 session change, not a panic move. Critically, actually retreating into that zone is improving setup by building a higher low above the $81 base – the type of constructive consolidation that precedes true breakouts.

Bullish breakout path with 40% probability: sharp long money positions are on track, aggressive sellers exhaust above $95, and a volume-driven rally to $97.75 reverses the tape. If this happens, $100.37 will become a speed bump rather than a wall, and the true 30-day target will be the 200-day SMA at $106.30. That’s where the bull is at stake – not $199, not $95, but $106.

Thirty-day range: $86 down, $106 up, with the base case consolidating between $88 and $98. As Blockchain.news continues to track the fundamentals of the AAVE protocol and on-chain data, any truly positive catalyst landing in this congestion zone could decisively turn the tide. However, right now the burden of proof rests solely with the bulls – and they need the volume to pay off this debt.

Image source: Shutterstock

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) delay in deciding whether to approve a Bitcoin Exchange spot fund in the United States is fueling expectations that the final verdict will be delivered in a batch involving key Wall Street players including BlackRock and Fidelity.

“There is tremendous pressure on the SEC to approve a number of these ETFs, especially since the approved futures-backed products lag significantly behind spot performance, which is hurting investors,” market veteran and CoinRoutes co-founder Dave Weisberger told Cointelegraph, adding that all pending applications will likely be included in the final decision.

The SEC is reviewing a total of eight spot Bitcoin ETF applications, following previous delays and denials for the crypto product in recent years. The companies set to make the decision include ARK Invest and 21Shares, Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco and Galaxy Digital, Fidelity and Valkyrie. The companies collectively manage more than $15 trillion in assets worldwide.

On August 11, the U.S. Markets Regulatory Authority opened a 21-day comment period for the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. According to filingThe SEC is seeking answers to whether the ARK 21Shares proposal seeks to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices, as well as whether the Bitcoin (BTC) market is susceptible to manipulation.

Additionally, the regulator expressed concerns about Coinbase’s supervisory sharing agreement, asking commenters to investigate whether Coinbase’s participation in ETF oversight would actually facilitate detect, investigate, and prevent fraud and Bitcoin price manipulation.

“The SEC’s main concern regarding spot cryptocurrency ETFs is potential market manipulation by a large whale. Theoretically, this could happen if the SEC approves the ETFs of one or two mutual funds. But if it decides to register all 8 ETFs, it will significantly reduce the likelihood of manipulation because these companies will be able to frequently trade with each other while standing on opposite sides,” explained Ruslan Lienkha, head of markets at YouHodler.

SEC filing schedule for spot Bitcoin ETF. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence/JAmes Seyffart

The delay had less of an impact on Bitcoin’s price, which was hovering around $30,000 at the time of writing. According to Mauricio Di Bartolomeo, co-founder of lending platform Ledn, investors and traders “expect [the SEC] to devote as much time as they can,” and today’s decision has little impact “from the point of view of market expectations.”

The SEC has two more deadlines to make a final decision. The third application deadline for ARK 21Shares is January 2024. Valkyrie already has the latest application, with the two upcoming deadlines being January and March next year.

The performance of the BTC ETF could change the cryptocurrency investing landscape. According to Lienkha, approval could potentially provide more than $70 billion in liquidity to the Bitcoin market. “The ability to invest in Bitcoin through ETFs will give ordinary investors greater confidence, because thanks to professional help they do not have to delve into all the technical details and analyze potential risks on their own,” he noted.

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