After such a historic run over the past two years, it was only a matter of time before bitcoin bear projections took over crypto discussions. Several pundits and pundits have been divided when they believe that the digital asset market will hit the peak of the cycle and will likely witness a reversal.
While the crowd is still quite sanguine about the potential of various cryptocurrencies, a market moving in the opposite direction will not be surprised. A popular crypto trader on the social media platform echoed a similar sentiment, providing a possible arrival time for the crypto bears.
Why bears could start in April
In a January 25 post on Platform X, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez common His “unpopular opinion” on the current Bitcoin bull cycle and its potential end. According to experts, the bear market may begin in about three months.
The reasoning behind this projection is that the historical price of Bitcoin in various cycles is halved. Bitcoin painting, an event that occurs approximately every four years, tightens the bitcoin supply by cutting the mining reward in half.
As seen in 2024 – the last year of the halving, the halving event has historically been a precursor to significant price increases. However, trail rallies are usually followed by significant profit taking, leading to market consolidation and a bear market.
Source: Ali_charts/X
Historically, approximately 276 days after the halfway point, the event has proven pivotal in the bitcoin market’s trajectory. In particular, the price of Bitcoin experienced a significant price augment after passing the 276-day milestone in the 2012-2016 half-cycle.
However, the BTC market witnessed a change in sentiment and a major market slowdown 367 days after the half-91 days after the 276-day milestone. If this historical pattern continues, investors could see a bear market begin in behind schedule April.
As of this writing, the BTC price is just below the $105,000 mark, reflecting no significant movement in the last day.
Increased retail interest?
While historical price data is an effective way to analyze cycle trajectories, on-chain data is another method that sheds lithe on cyclical price movements. One such metric is retail bitcoin interest, which measures demand from compact investors in the cryptocurrency.
Related reading: MicroStrategy Could Face Tax Problems Over $19 Billion in Unrealized Bitcoin Gains: Report
Typically, retail investor demand is often correlated with the euphoria peak. “Looking at previous cycles, the last two major spikes in the “How to Buy Crypto” search occurred when BTC It was around $65,000 in May 2021 and $69,000 in November 2021 – at the top of the market” Martinez said in a separate post on X.
Source: Ali_charts/X
As shown in the chart above, the “interest over time” indicator appears to be rallying again in 2025. This could be a signal of an impending peak in the crypto market.
The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from Istock, chart from Tradingview
