Arthur Hayes, director of investment in Maelstrom and co -founder, as well as former general director of Bitmex, published a novel essay entitled “The Ugly”, in which he claims that Bitcoin can be prepared for deep drag before eventually marching for unprecedented ups. Keeping his characteristic dullness, Hayes presents two scenarios when buying bitcoins.

Buy bitcoins if this happens

Hayes’ essay It starts with telling a sudden change of sentiment that surprised him. Comparing financial analysis with skiing skiing on a dormant volcano, Hayes remembers how the usual hint of danger of Avalanche once forced him to stop and re -evaluate. He expresses a similarly restless feeling about the current monetary conditions, the intuition, which he says, he felt recently at the end of 2021, just before the fall of cryptographic markets from their record up.

“Subtle moves between the level of the central bank balance sheet, bank credit expansion rate, the relationship between 10 years of product prices/shares/bitcoins, and the crazy price campaign Trump Memecoin created the bottom in my stomach,” he writes, emphasizing that these signals together remind him of uncertain The situation of the market before slowing down 2022 and 2023 explains that he does not believe that the wider bull cycle is completed, but expects Bitcoin may drop to around $ 70,000 to $ 75,000 before it reaches $ 250,000 until the end of the year rapidly .

He describes this scope as probable, considering that capital markets and treasury markets appear in his words, deeply entangled in the “dirty FIAT” environment, which are still struggling with the footsteps of inflation and growing interest rates. Hayes points out that Maelstrom, his investment company, remains long, while raising its shares in USDE Stablecoins to buy back bitcoins if the price drops below 75,000 USD.

In his opinion, a reduction in risk in a tiny period allows him to maintain capital, which can be later implemented when the market is true. It identifies 30% correction from current levels as a clear possibility, while considering that stubborn rush can continue. “If Bitcoin exchanged USD 110,000 with a strong volume with expanding sharp interest, then I will throw a towel and buy the risk higher,” he writes in his second scenario.

Trying to decipher why a ephemeral withdrawal may happen, Hayes claims that the main central banks – the Federal Reserve in the United States, the Bank of People’s China and the Bank of Japan – either limit the creation of money, or in some cases, explicitly to boost the price of money by permission to boost profitability . He believes that these changes may suffer from speculative capital, which in recent months raised both shares and cryptocurrencies.

His discussion about the USA focuses on two blocked perspectives: that ten years of treasury profitability may boost to the zone between 5% and 6%, and the federal reserve, although hostile to Donald Trump’s administration, does not contain printing restoration if it becomes Necessary to maintain American financial stability.

However, he believes that at some point the financial system will require intervention – most likely the exemption from an additional lever indicator (SLR) or a novel wave of quantitative alleviation. He claims that the Fed’s reluctance or slowness to take these stages increases the likelihood of selling tiny -term bonds that could charge shares and by Bitcoin correlation.

His political analysis of houses with persistent hostility between Trump and the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, as well as Fed’s readiness to the crisis deprived of during the presidency of Biden. He cites the statements of the former governor of Fed William Dudley and refers to the comments of the Powell press conference, which suggested that the FED can change its approach on the basis of Trump’s policy.

Hayes describes these tensions as a background for the script in which Trump can allow the development of a mini -finance crisis by forcing the FED hand. Under such stress, the Fed would not have a little choice, but to prevent a wider crawl, and then the monetary expansion may occur. He suggests that Trump’s administration would be politically for Trump administration to boost the level of crisis, if it meant that the Fed would be forced to change on a gigantic scale, which many in cryptographic circles expect.

China, notes Hayes, seemed ready to join the liquidity party with a clear emergency reflex program in January, when PBOC stopped the bond purchase program and allowed Yuan to stabilize in a stronger position. This change of policy attributes internal political pressure or possibly strategic maneuvering for future negotiations with Trump.

Hayes also admits that some readers may recognize the correlation between bitcoins and time-honored risk of embarrassment, taking into account the long -term argument that Bitcoin is a unique magazine of values. However, it points to charts showing a growing 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ 100.

He says that in a tiny period they lead cryptocurrency remains sensitive to changes in Fiat’s liquidity, even if the coin ultimately trads in unqualified time horizons. In this way, it presents bitcoins as a leading indicator: if the bond gives falls of Spike and Equity Markets, Bitcoin can start diving before setting technical inventory. Hayes believes that when the authorities release the cash stimulus to suppress variability, Bitcoin would be the first to pull out and reflect.

He admits that predicting precise results is impossible and that every investor must play perceived probabilities, not certainty. His decision to secure results from the concept of the expected value. If he thinks that there is a significant chance to withdraw 30% compared to the less likely that Bitcoin will continue before deciding to buy 10% Premium, reducing the exposure still gives a better risk prize ratio.

“Trade is not about being good or bad”, he emphasizes, “but about trade perceived probability and maximizing the expected value.” He also emphasizes that this protective attitude allows him to wait for the type of dramatic liquidation movement in Altcoins, which is often accompanied by a tiny -term collapse of Bitcoins, a script that he calls “Armageddon” in the so -called “shitty space”. In such circumstances, he wants gigantic funds to be available basically solid tokens at seriously reduced prices.

During the BTC press it traded at USD 102,530.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com