In the film entitled “Macro perspectives at 2025: Big Moves Forward”, Julien Bittel, Macro Research Chief at Global Macro Investor (GMI), developed a wide perspective where trends of growth and inflation are going. 2017 than 2021 and how Bitcoin could be prepared for a remarkable growth if his historical relationship with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and global fluidity is true.

ForCast: macro bitcoin is coming

Bittel explained that Macro “Summer” is a dominant regime that sees how it develops in 2025, which means that the growth rate increases, while inflation remains modest enough for central banks to avoid overtaking. He emphasized that “the business cycle is still approaching”, pointing to the improvement of global production data and the fact that more countries are undergoing expansion. Although slight fluctuations persist in some indicators, including pockets, which briefly resemble a slowdown, Bittel remains sure that they do not mean the beginning of a modern “fall” macro with a lasting delay in growth and growing inflation. Instead, he suggests that these winds will turn out to be brief -lived, taking into account the general environment in which global financial conditions relax.

He emphasized the decrease in the profitability of bonds in the US and the recent weakening of the dollar as factors that will allow “more cow” from central banks. The derivatives of China’s bonds have also collapsed, which Bittel considers the main signal that Beijing can provide additional fluidity injections without fear of excessive overheating. He described this combination as Echo 2017, a year in which a softer dollar and lower interest rates contributed to the growth of both classic markets and cryptocurrencies.

Taking inflation, Bittel made a section why shelter and other costs related to services are such significant delays. He noticed that more than a third of the main CPI is associated with apartments, which “usually delay the prices of houses by about 17 months”, and indicated that shelter inflation still maintains an increased official number of CPI. He expects this dynamics to give central banks freedom to make monetary policy even easier when they see that the data is falling. While some cyclical forces, such as freight prices, may raise inflation later in the year, Bittel emphasizes that the peak is not approaching and that the federal reserve will probably maintain sufficient flexibility to avoid suppressing the ongoing economic reflection.

By discussing Bitcoin, Bittel did not achieve the role of a business cycle in increasing central price movements. He remembered that when the ISM index barely floated above 50 in 2013 and 2017, the cryptocurrency continued to the rally for dozens of multiples. In 2021, the macro image suddenly completed when ISM and liquidity reached the peak, reducing the cycle and limiting the Bitcoin gear at about 8 -fold traffic from the initial rotation from the recession. Today’s background looks significantly different. Bittel noticed that “ISM is just moving above 50”, which contrasts with the raise in the end of 2020-at the same time in 2021, which he raced from the 1940s to the mid-1960s. Almost in one breath.

He added that “if we are right about the weaker dollar and the reception of global liquidity”, the Bitcoin path may resemble the extended growth of 2017, he referred to the historical precedent of the 23 -time jump in 2017, when the cycle gained adhesion. His caution was clear – he repeatedly stated that these movements are never guaranteed and that “I am not telling you that Bitcoin is going 23x”, but he also emphasized that in every previous cryptographic race there was a strength in the business cycle, turned out to be a “magical gift which still gives. “He believes that the foundation was set to extended growth, but reminded everyone that 20-30% of payments are inevitable even during huge rallies.

In addition, he noticed that “when you understand where the economy is going, you understand where the resources are going”, and repeated that liquidity, especially from China, can become an even greater motor of digital assets as progressed in 2025. Bittel strengthened the point, saying that “Historically, the greatest rapid increases in Bitcoin took place when ISM is growing and we are in macro in the summer.”

He also emphasized that all brief -term withdrawals in Bitcoin should not be confused with changes in the macro regime. Cyclical conditions, driven by easier financial conditions, remain in place, although he reminded viewers to expect corrections and others patient. In his words “this is never a straight line” and in a few weeks he can feel like “the end of the world”. However, taking into account the similarities until 2017 and the ongoing dollar slides, he believes that the runway for bitcoins – and other risk assets – appears relatively long.

While Bittel’s presentation also concerned wider market segments, such as goods and cyclical actions, Bitcoin received a special goal. Explaining why the Macro Skeleton GMI still signals optimism, Bittel emphasized that “Dips are to buy”, provided that investors carefully observe the signs of a deeper structural slowdown. He emphasized that “no one should forget that if you register for Bitcoin, you register to volatility”, but with the business cycle only starting its erection and liquidity conditions, gaining adhesion, there may be a lot of space to move Bitcoin outside the previous peaks, if The data still favors the cyclical extension.

During the BTC press it traded at USD 97,710.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com