Bitcoin price efficiency has maintained sluggish movement in recent weeks, and the cryptocurrency is currently rising near USD 97,000. Despite the 3% decline in the last two weeks, Bitcoin remains in the consolidation phase after reaching the highest level in January above USD 109,000.
As the assets in this respect, discussions about the ongoing cycle by half and its potential impact on future price movements gained pace. One noteworthy perspective comes from the analyst Cryptoquant Oinonen, which recently shared insight into the current position of Bitcoin in relation to previous cycles by half.
Institutional activity and market signals
In detail analysis Oinonen entitled “Comparing performance in the room” pointed out that the price of Bitcoin increased by only 63% since the last half in April 2024. This is sharply contrasting with a 686% enhance in the mid-2020-2021 cycle.
While the model of power and the principle of decreasing returns suggest more subdued profits over time, relatively low recognition from the last half indicates that the current cycle can still be in progress, leaving space for a further position.
Oinonen also emphasized the role of institutional players in shaping bitcoin price forecasts. In particular, the strategy (formerly Microstrategy) is still an influential market participant. At the beginning of 2025, the company increased its Bitcoin Holdings by 7633 BTC, increasing its sum to about 478 740 pieces.
According to Oinonen, a continuous strategy for obtaining strategies is a key indicator of institutional demand. Historically, these purchases were pro -cyclical, which suggests that further accumulation can signal the positive trajectory of the Bitcoin Spot price. And vice versa, a slowdown in institutional purchase may reflect weaker market moods.
Long -term perspectives among the unfinished cycle by half
Looking to the future, Oinonen predicts a mixed market environment. Low -term challenges, such as the potential “sell in May” and stagnant summer, can give way to a stronger place results in the fourth quarter.
The analyst reveals that this seasonal pattern has been played many times in previous years, often causing increased price levels by the end of the year. However, the possibility of more significant correction – spending a few months or even a year – is implemented on the table, especially if macroeconomic events such as geopolitical resolutions, change of shift market.
In general, the current cycle by half, according to Oinonen’s analysis, seems incomplete. Moderate profits from April 2024 reflect the market that is not yet fully used by the reduced emission rate.
As such, the view that Bitcoin’s Bull Run may still have legs, is based on historical trends and the presence of institutional players such as strategy. Supported between reduced supply and constant demand is the stage of potential up movements, even in the case of remaining variability in compact -term.
A distinguished picture created from DALL-E, chart from TradingView
