On Tuesday, February 19, the Federal Reserve published its minutes of meetings, revealing that central bankers are considering the end – or at least a significant slowdown – for quantitative exacerbation (QT). The document states: “Several participants suggest stopping or slow down the reduction of the balance waiting for the resolution of the debt ceiling.”

These comments fueled optimism among Bitcoin experts who perceive the potential end of QT as a stubborn signal. Many perceive this as a precursor of greater liquidity entering financial markets, a state that historically benefited from risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The newly published minutes confirm that some FED officials are afraid of interaction between the ongoing balance reduction and the upcoming debate to the ceiling of debt. The possibility of issuing the Treasury on a immense scale after solving the debt ceiling seems to be a key controller for connections to stop or stop QT.

There was no clear transition to quantitative alleviation (QE), but confirmation that the reduction of the balance sheet may be circumscribed, it was enough to raise speculation in digital assets. The protocols must be unanimously approved by the Federal Committee of the Open Market (FOMC), which further suggests a deliberate message of decision -makers.

Implications for bitcoins

A well -known market commentator and host of the podcast on the margin, Felix Jauvin, went to X to emphasize the importance of FED signaling, writing: “It is, QT is coming to an end this spring. Reminder that every FOMC member must unanimously approve these minutes, it is intentional. “

While Javin emphasizes the unanimity of these minutes, he ceases to predict an immediate change towards QE. Instead, it points to a specific chain of events that Fed seems to navigate.

The Fed has already reduced the balance sheet rafting rate by half compared to the initial speed. Jauvin also notes that when the Reverse Repo (RRP) object approaches zero and the FED reaches the level of the target reserve about 3% of GDP, the end to QT becomes more likely.

In addition, concerns related to the tax account (TGA) potentially rebuilt after termination of the debt ceiling, which leads to significant invoices, which can lead to transient interference on the financing markets.

Therefore, and do not stop QE, Jauvin believes that the FED can perform a transient release from an additional lever indicator (SLR), enabling commercial banks to absorb additional government debt. “They are very, very far from any formal QE. Instead, it is more likely that they carry out the exemption from SLR, enabling commercial banks to marginal debt buyer, “says Javin.

The formal return to QE, sums up Javin, would only materialize when financial and economic conditions have deteriorated significantly, including a grave fall of risk assets and a decrease in rates to almost zero. In response to the user X asking if the ending of QT is stubborn, not necessarily indicating an immediate transition to QE, Javin proposed a concise explanation:

“Therefore, think about the current liquidity background, it slightly improves, because we will have a possible sequence of TGA withdrawal to QT ending with potentially exemptions with mirror and it will be for now. QE should not even be in the current vocabulary in the current state. “

A well -known Pentoshi cryptographic analyst That’s rightEmphasizing the previously published forecast: “QT ends … I think QT ends at the beginning of Q3. With everything that happens, Trump probably forces him now. He was right at QT Guess on November 21. Let’s see. “

He cited how easier at the end of 2021 coincided with the end of cryptocurrencies. Now market observers are eager to watch whether the opposite – a potential ending of QT – can cause a re -shoot in the case of bitcoins and other digital assets.

During the BTC press it traded for USD 97 208.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com