The price of Bitcoin survived another volatility attack on the weekend, dropping 5% on Sunday to immerse below the 80,000 USD brand before settling nearly USD 82,000. The latter decrease puts cryptocurrency by about 25% below the highest highest level in history 109,900 USD. Analysts attribute a deterioration of the economic situation to continuous commercial tensions – connected to the latest tariff resources of President Donald Trump – and fear of the upcoming recession.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the US dollar (DXY), which fell from 110 to 103 from mid -January, coincides with the second term of Trump and can be a potential catalyst of the Bitcoin price. In the series posts On X, Jamie Coutts, the main cryptographic analyst at Realvision, offers the current market environment, emphasizing two key indicators that can shape the policy of the central bank – and thus, the Bitcoin trajectory. “Bitcoin is like playing chicken with central banks,” writes Coutts.

He explained that although the recent decline in the dollar supports the stubborn frame for Bitcoins, the growing variability of treasury bonds (tracked by the movement index) and the expansion of the spades of corporate bonds cause anxiety: Coutts emphasizing the role of American treasures as a global security resource. He argued that every augment in their volatility forces lenders to apply larger hairstyles on security and exacerbation of liquidity. “The growing variability forces lenders to use hairstyles to protect, thus tensioning liquidity. […] Above 110 [on the MOVE Index] I suspect that there will be a few fears at the central planner level. “

Over the past three weeks, the spread of corporate investment bonds in the US has expanded, shifting Coutts’ views as a signal that the risk assets-in this bitcoin-to be under pressure: “It suggests that the demand for detention in relation to treasures is disappearing-and further widening may be negative for risk assets.”

Despite these warning flags, Coutts remains optimist as to the medium -term Bitcoin perspectives, mainly due to the “rapid decline” of the dollar. He noticed that the dollar drop in March – one of the most vital monthly declines in 12 years – coincided with the stubborn storage points at the Bitcoin price. According to his research: “Everyone appeared in the Bitcoin Bear market (inflection points) or in a medium cycle (continuation of trends).”

Recognizing the confined historical set of Bitcoin data, Coutts also cited key catalysts, which in his opinion could augment digital resources:

• Adoption of the nation -state: “The global breed of nation state is underway,” Coutts wrote, describing the script in which countries either contain bitcoins in their strategic reserves or augment mining efforts.
• Corporate accumulation: indicates the possibility of companies – especially strategy (MST) – this year from 100,000 to 200,000 BTC.
• ETF positions: Rotary funds can “double their positions”, additionally drives the institutional influx.
• Dynamics of liquidity: with the words of Coutts “the spice must flow”.

Coutts also mentioned that Bitcoin seems to “fill a large gap” and repeated his view that the slide below the highest level of USD 70,000 would signal a fundamental market change. Meanwhile, he sees central bankers closer to possible intervention, when tax variability and credit spread increases: “If tax variability and bonds are rising, assets prices will continue. Meanwhile, this will probably force central planners to act. “

At the end, Coutts proposed a concise summary of why he thinks that Bitcoin is effectively closed in a duel with central banks: “Think about Bitcoin as a game with a high rate chicken with central planners. With their decreasing options – and assuming that Hodlers remain unchanged – the chances are more and more in favor of the owner of Bitcoin. “

For now, the world’s largest cryptocurrency seems to follow the line between the macroeconomic wind head – displayed by the unstable bond market – and weakening the dollar weakening the dollar. Whether Bitcoin is still withdrawing or a long-term entrance probably depends on how global decision-makers react to the growing pressure on the bond market-whether the owners are prepared to play “chicken” with central planners.

During the BTC press it traded at USD 82,091.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com