US President Donald Trump formally established a strategic Bitcoin reserve last week – an action that caught both celebration and care in the industry. The heart of this debate is one main question: Will Bitcoin become an essential geopolitically global macro asset, such as gold, or will it remain a niche among libertarians, Cypherpunks and speculators?

This is the basic amount of the latest bitise Investor’s noteThe author by the investment director Matt Hougan. Entitled “The only question that is important in Bitcoins” and on March 10, 2025, the note emphasizes how long-term Bitcoin perspectives may depend on whether the rule around the world-going through the United States-it seems to be enough to build strategic reserves.

One substantial question for bitcoins

In the note, Hougan emphasizes the striking nature of the US government’s decision, writing: “Fifteen years after the creation of Bitcoins – ten and a half ridicule and skepticism, people call it” a rock for animals “and” rats poison ” – the US government announced” strategic “Bitcoin that” it will not be sold “.

He claims that Bitcoin’s support as a strategic reserve resource signals a historical change: “It is a historic milestone, which will help drive bitcoins to the new ups of all time. Congratulations to everyone who believed in this opportunity before it was fun. “

However, the markets were not satisfied with this advertisement. Although the formal recognition of the government seems to strengthen Bitcoin’s legality, it also disappointed some investors who expected immediate influx of recent government purchases.

Shortly after the appearance of a reserve message, the price of Bitcoin dropped by 13% from the last highest level with a value of over USD 92,000, falling below USD 80,000 for the first time since November 2024. It indicates several factors contributing to: wider economic worries, withdrawal of the stock market and, most importantly, calls the “anxiety” of the real government.

“Despite the historical nature of the declaration, Bitcoin has fallen in recent days,” he notes in the note. Investors apparently counted on immediate shopping on a gigantic scale from the US Treasury. Instead, they learned that the reserve would initially include existing Bitcoin government shares – estimated 200,000 BTC, worth around $ 16 billion at current prices.

Hougan believes that the negative reaction of the market is unjustified, emphasizing that only the behavior of these 200,000 bitcoins instead of selling them – expected as part of the previous administration – causes a significant overhang from the market.

In addition, the recent executive ordinance clearly states: “[T]The Secretary of the Treasury and the Secretary of Trade will develop strategies for the acquisition of an additional government BTC, provided that such strategies are neutral for the budget and do not impose the incremental costs of US taxpayers. “

In his note, Hougan emphasizes the meaning of the word “should” suggests that this indicates a fine rather than a uncomplicated possibility. First of all, the BitWise note insists on a long -term perspective, calling for investors to focus on what Hougana defines “the only question that is important in bitcoins.” This question is whether Bitcoin becomes essential all over the world, similar to gold, or whether it remains peripheral.

“If Bitcoin is important all over the world, here is my view: it will be assets worth $ 10-50 trillion, which means a 5x -25x return on current prices. If not, it will be a footnote in history, jumping less than $ 150,000, supported only by a small cohort of libertarians, vibrations and speculators. There is no between Bitcoin is either important all over the world or not, “writes Hougan.

From this point of view, the choice of the US government to stop (and potentially extensions) of bitcoin resources is a huge signal for other countries. If, as Hougan suggests, nations, including the Czech Republic, Russia, China, El Salvador and India, weigh their own strategic movements in the space of digital assets, the USA take bitcoins as strategic, they can encourage them to follow in Hichski-especially if they want to get further American acquisitions.

While some investors may be discouraged by the immediate lack of mass government purchases, the BitWise note remains confident in the face of the recent Bitcoin variability. Hougan defines the current drop in prices as an opportunity for people looking at the longer time. “I see one big take -out. This short-term weakness is a gift, “he means.

During the BTC press it traded at USD 80,319.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com