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This article is also available in Spanish.
During the ongoing debate on the trajectory of the Bitcoin market, two outstanding cryptographic analysts shared contrasting points of view on X, emphasizing the divided mood of the community. While one maintains that the drastic deterioration of the situation remains possible, the other assumes that the worst slowdown of the market has already passed – which is a remarkable probability of 87.5%.
Bitcoin is in trouble?
Crypto Doctor Profit analyst (@drofitcrypto) Published On X I created two potential paths for Bitcoin: “There are two scenarios: a) the bottom in which the region 68-74k on the normal market is located, b) full failure in the direction of 50,000. In the Black Swan event. “
He did not provide a specific probability of any of the results, but he emphasized that the Black Swan event – the term used to describe a uncommon, unexpected event that can drastically affect markets – can be ruled out. Noticing that such an unusual deterioration of the economic situation was unlikely before, he now admits that the last changes in the macro landscape may leave the place: “Assume, I would say that the Black Swan event was very unlikely in the last few months, but ask me now, I don’t rule out it, rather it.”
In contrast, the analyst Crypto Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) answered a more stubborn perspective, claiming that the bottom is behind us. He referred to the revision of Bitcoins prices around the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), claiming that it works “14 by 16 times”, or about 87.5% of the time. “It does not guarantee, but 87.5% of the chance, he gave the chart and all the performances that I have already presented. So far so good.”
His approach is based on mapping price movements near Date FOMC, noting that markets often the price in decisions regarding interest rates (and related messages) before official announcements. The astronomer method claims that Bitcoin usually finds local DNA in a window covering up to five “2D bars” before the date of FOMC until the day of the meeting itself.
“Everything he requires is throwing every day (or 2 a day in my case to keep the time, delete all the dates of the FOMC meeting and see what price it has done. It shows that the price really has a tendency to reverse when time is approaching Fomc. The reservation lies that the price turns before or in the latest, on FOMC day,” writes the analyst.
He indicates that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 19, which means that the bottom – if a historic pattern occurs – it should appear no later than on the day: “It works almost every time, 14 with 16 times (or 87.5% of the time) … The time difference, compared to the FOMC day, usually is 0 to 5 bars before the date. Considering the next FOMC is March 19, this means that the latest day is low and at the earliest on March 5. “
To strengthen his argument, the astronomer points to what he perceives as “reaching the peak of fear” on the market. He believes that increased pessimism and “warning of posts out of nowhere” from recognized traders as typical signals that the reflection can be inevitable: “wise fondness, fear will reach funny levels. Even “renowned” traders protect their reputation […] I do not blame anyone’s methods, but I think it is a great sign of DNA. “
During the BTC press it traded at USD 83,277.
A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com
