In his latest investor note entitled “The Great Bitcoins” BitWise Asset Management boldly stood on the future of the original cryptocurrency in the world. Investment director Matt Hougan provided a detailed analysis in shipping of March 25, 2025, stating: “Now is the best time in history for the purchase of Bitcoin (based on corrected risk).” . noteWhich includes reflections on the early Bitcoin Days and the assessment of its largest milestone, offers insight into why Bitwery believes that the leading risk profile of digital assets has changed dramatically in recent years.

The best time to buy Bitcoin

In his opening comments, Hougan talks about his introduction to Bitcoin in February 2011, when he worked as part of the financial analytical team at ETF.com. During the routine meeting of the market review, one of the youthful Hougan analysts brought the fact that Bitcoin had just exceeded USD 1 – a breakthrough event that caused a discussion about its basic technology and potential apply. “If I invested 1000 USD in Bitcoin after this meeting, it would be worth $ 88 million today,” Hougan in retrospect.

This anecdote, however, is not simply a story of a lost opportunity. Hougan emphasizes the risk that was ubiquitous at that time, emphasizing how the idea of ​​transferring 1000 USD to the “random address of PayPal” by the resulting cryptographic exchange was nervous and to a enormous extentless proposition. In addition, regulatory care and government supervision practically did not exist, effectively transforming all exposure to cryptocurrencies into high -risk gambling and prize. “Throw the regulatory, regulatory, technological and government risk … and the placement of 1000 USD on Bitcoin in 2011 was a huge gambling,” he explains.

The Hougana Work Center is that Bitcoin has been methodically overwhelmed almost every existential threat that once appeared over the years. He notes that early attempts to create digital cash – such as the article of the 1997 National Security Agency entitled “How to make mint: cryptography of anonymous electronic cash” – has never fully started, which makes him far from guaranteed that Bitcoin himself would succeed.

From there, the improvements of commercial places and care solutions gradually reduce entry barriers. When Coinbase began at the end of 2011, it meant a key moment, offering a more affable and trustworthy user for retail and institutional investors. The main providers of care, including Fidelity, would later expand their operational strength and brands on the crypto, which further relieves the concerns about safety and storage.

At the same time, once pervasive fears of regulatory injections began to disappear. In 2024, the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange (ETF) rotary funds in the US removed another essential road blockade. Hougan notes that wider acceptance in customary financial markets has made it easier for institutions to justify adding digital assets to their portfolios without worrying about incompatible regulatory systems or insufficient market supervision.

“When Bitcoin first launched, there was no guarantee that it would even work. […] Amazing in bitcoins is that over time slowly, but certainly knocked down each of these existential threats, “writes Hougan, emphasizing his view that Bitcoin’s evolutionary path was measured immunity.

The last bitcoin threat is removed

One key question is still shadows growing Bitcoin: what if the main government decides to prohibit or seriously limit cryptocurrency? Hougan points to the historic parallel: the golden order of the US government confiscation in 1933, made available under the President of Franklin D. Roosevelt. The agent was aimed at consolidating gold resources to strengthen government reserves, fueling widespread fear among Bitcoins investors that a similar prohibition may suppress the growth of cryptocurrency or simply make it illegal.

“The United States confiscated private gold in 1933 to increase public cassettes. Why would Bitcoin grow large enough to threaten the American dollar?” Hougan admits.

He adds that this worst scenario was often hardened, reminding people that if Bitcoin became significant enough to compete with the dollar, “you will probably handle the investment quite well.” Despite this, there is uncertainty – as long as Hougan considers a decisive event at the beginning of this month.

Hougan says that the ordinance of President Trump establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the USA, signed at the beginning of March, concerned this concern. By making a direct investment in Bitcoin, the US government effectively annulled the perspective of a direct ban, instead switching to a strategic adaptation policy. “And the same, the last existential risk before Bitcoin disappeared before my eyes,” notes Hougan.

Critics wondered why the United States would support what can be interpreted as a competitor of the dollar status as a global reserve currency. Quoting Cliff Asness, the founder of AQR Capital, Hougan indicates an immediate question: “(i) f Crypto is a real long -term competitor to the American dollar, why, at the hell, we would promote this direct competitor to our reserve currency in the world?”

In Hougana’s opinion, the US government positions bitcoins as a security, and does not give up monetary dominance. If the primacy of the dollar is threatened, Bitcoin is a more controlled or at least more limpid alternative than a foreign currency, such as Chinese Juan. “The best scenario for the United States is that the dollar remains a reserve currency in the world. But if we get to the point where it is threatened, it is better to move to Bitcoin than something like Chinese Juan,” he says.

Moving institutional allocation

On the institutional front, Bitwa has already observed a noticeable change in how investors allocate to crypto. Only two years ago, having 1% in Bitcoin or other digital assets was considered relatively aggressive for a different portfolio. This allocation was aimed at capturing speculative benefits while limiting the exposure to what still seemed to be a giving birth, unpredictable market.

Today, however, with a modern level of ID card and more regulated investing paths, the company sees that more customers accept allocations close to 3%. Hougan notes that this trend reflects the deep change of perception: Bitcoin is no longer just gambling; This is a reliable alternative resource. “Because more of the world is waking up with the huge use that we saw in Bitcoin, I think you will see this number up to 5% and more,” he predicts.

During the BTC press it traded at USD 87,865.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com