Bitcoin’s recovery to its highest all time can be threatened with the growing fears of recession, which could alleviate if the United States and China began tariff negotiations this month, research analysts said Cointelegraph.
The appetite for global risk resources, such as Bitcoin (BTC), can accept another hit, and analysts from Apollo Global Management provide for recession until the summer.
“Apollo predicts a summer recession: the sharpest decrease in the perspective of earnings from 2020”, a multiple analyst ( post.
Progress in tariff negotiations may be the most critical factor affecting the potential recession and trajectory of Bitcoin prices, in accordance with Aurelie Barthere, main research analyst on the Crypto Nansen intelligence platform.
“May is perceived as crucial when Chinese shipments reach the US banks, and exemptions from some tariff categories, such as car parts and Sub-USD-800 shipping from China/ Hong Kong expires,” Barthere said Cointelegraph, adding that the lack of negotiations in May can lead to economic recession and “double losses” as Bitcoin.
However, this is the least likely scenario, because neither China nor the United States “has no economic interest during a break of bilateral trade,” said Barthere, adding:
“Taking this into account, the main tariff scenario is to achieve a US transaction or at least” contracts in principle “with the main trading partners, probably settling around 10% of mutual tariff” floor “.
Barthere said that if this scenario took place and trade tensions in May, Bitcoin will probably visit its highest level again.
The United States “reached China proactively through many channels” for signaling their openness to tariff negotiations, Reuters Reported On May 1, citing unnamed sources that talked to the Chinese media platform, Yuyuan Tantian.
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Bitcoin can gather despite the recession
While most analysts hope that commercial negotiations in can alleviate economic fears, Bitcoin can even find out in the face of a potential recession.
“Initially, bitcoins and cryptocurrencies can experience volatility, falling along with risk assets, such as shares due to sales of investors,” said CointeLgraph, adding Cointelegraph, Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental advisor Blockchain, adding:
“Historical data, such as Bitcoin recession after 2020, suggest that they can reflect, especially if they are seen as inflation protection.”
“In staglation (high inflation and leisurely growth) Bitcoin, often compared to gold, can go well, attracting investors seeking value protection. However, its increased correlation with the stock exchange, especially technological actions, introduces uncertainty,” Lian said, adding that cryptographic investors should continue monitoring economic policy for achieving the direction of the market.
However, the growing Bitcoin correlation with technological inventory increases the uncertainty of this perspective. After the Covid-19 disaster in March 2020, Bitcoin increased by over 1050%, increased from USD 6,000 to the highest level of USD 69,000 in November 2021. fired His assets purchase program worth $ 4 trillion in March 2020.
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Other industry observers remain interested in the reaction of the cryptocurrency market to economic stagnation.
“If analysts are right about recession (which is certainly not guaranteed), cryptographic markets will probably fall along with wider assets and risk actions”, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co -founder and operating director of Blockchain Oracle Redstone.
Kazmierczak said that “tariffs from the day of liberation and slowdown in truck can create an economic infection that historically strikes speculative assets.”
“While the growing institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies introduces some uncertainty, it is not enough to overcome the basic classification of risk, which still dominates the behavior of the market,” he added.
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