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Bitcoin (BTC) is basically not considered a reliable investment during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, especially when oil prices escalate in response to escalational global tensions. However, historical data suggest that such moments often present attractive opportunities to buy traders prepared to apply market dislocations.

Oil jumping is often in line with acute, ephemeral bitcoin prices

In the face of the upcoming conflict or instability, investors usually change into brief -term debt and cash, conducive to safety of volatility. Nevertheless, Bitcoin historically surpassed within a week after the laughter increases in oil prices, such as a recent rally to 77 USD for a barrel on Friday.

The overview of the 15-minute price table reveals the opposite relationship between Bitcoin and oil. As Wti Surce increased by 19% between Wednesday and Friday, Bitcoin dropped from USD 110,200 to USD 102,800. This pattern is consistent with the dominant view of Bitcoins as risk assets, not defensive security. However, wider time frames offer various observations.

In the long term, the data does not show a coherent correlation between Bitcoin prices and oil prices, while the relationship changes significantly. Despite this, the episodes of recognizing the prices of extreme oils have coincided with acute Bitcoin corrections – three times in the last year. After each instance, the bitcoin price was reflected, with profits from 16% to 24% within eight days from the initial decline.

In the latest case, on January 15, 2025, oil increased to USD 80.50 from 72.50 USD just six days earlier. Spike coincided with a decrease in Bitcoins to USD 89,300 on January 13, and then 22% to USD 109,300 until January 20. This movement occurred after the United States imposed sanctions on the Russian oil sector, while American primitive reserves fell by eight subsequent weeks.

Earlier, on October 8, 2024, oil prices increased to USD 77.50 from USD 68.00 a week earlier. Bitcoin initially improved to $ 58,900 on October 10, but then reached 16% in the next eight days. The rally to 68,960 USD awarded traders who used the variability caused by terrorist attacks of October 7 in the Middle East.

Related: Panic or opportunity? What cryptographic capitulation tells wise investors

A similar pattern occurred on August 13, 2024, when the oil increased to USD 80 from USD 74 after Libya temporarily closed the key oil fields, apparently due to mobilization by armed groups. Bitcoin dropped to USD 56 150 until August 15, but reflected 16% in a few days, reaching USD 65,000 to August 23.

Although there is no guarantee that the trend will persist, oil prices once again increased at five -month maxima. Historical data suggest that the current Bitcoin level of nearly USD 102,800 may be another attractive entry, potentially focused to USD 169 to USD 119,200 to 21 June.

This article is used for general information purposes and should not be and should not be treated as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are themselves and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.