Eth Maxis predicts $ 3,000, but professional traders are skeptical

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Key results:

  • Term contract markets and ETH options show hesitation despite the influx of ETFs and the growing TVL numbers.

  • Layer 2 growth and lower fees did not translate into increased demand for ETH or lasting price.

The price of ether (ETH) increased 13.5% in two days, reaching $ 3,000 on Thursday, but traders remain inconsistent with whether it will persist. Despite the recently stubborn momentum, ETH derivative markets show a lack of trust, increasing traders’ doubts about the potential of further benefits.

ETH 30-day Futures annual bonus. Source: laevitas.ch

The monthly Ether Futures bonus is currently 5%, sitting on the edge of the neutral and bear. Although this is an improvement in relation to the bonus from the previous week 3.5%, the last significant signal was stubborn on January 23, when ETH traded above USD 3300. Professional traders are now less gloomy, but still far from certainty in a lasting price rally.

The ethereum layer blooms, but lower fees do not augment ETH demand

ETH still fell by 41% compared to the highest level in November 2021, which partly explains a cautious look. More importantly, the Ethereum network fees have dropped, which reduces the ETH combustion rate. Because the built -in Ethereum combustion mechanism depends on the activity of the network, lower utilize means that more ETH remains in circulation, exerting pressure on the price.

The highest blockchains included in 30-day fees, USD. Source: Nansen

According to Nansen’s data, Ethereum network fees have dropped by 22% to $ 34.8 million in the last 30 days. Although this trend influenced a significant part of the blockchain sector, ETH investors were particularly disappointed. This is because the augment in total blocked value (TVL) did not translate into a higher demand for ETH itself.

Ethereum TVL, USD (left, blue) vs. Ethereum dex 7-day volumes (on the right). Source: Developma

TVL on the Ethereum network increased to $ 73 billion on Thursday from $ 50 billion three months ago. Despite this, the trading volume for decentralized exchanges (DEXS) has fallen to nine months. Even if the previous Memecoin frenzy was unbalanced, many ETH investors hoped that increased activity would be longer.

The Ethereum Layer-2 ecosystem has achieved better than expected, generating $ 58.6 billion in volumes Dex in the last 30 days. However, the transition to the lower fees for rolling through the stains did not augment significant demand on ETH.

For comparison, Solana has TVL, which is 86% smaller than Ethereum, but managed to generate $ 25.3 million network fees. The 30-day throne fees are also 60% higher than Ethereum.

To determine if this lack of trust is specific to the Futures, it is helpful to look at the option market. When traders strive for additional exposure via the connection options, SKOK Delta usually falls below the neutral range -5% to +5%. And vice versa, the demand for protection of declines pushes the record higher.

ETH 30-day Delta SKEW Options at Deribit (Put-Call). Source: laevitas.ch

Currently, the distortion of the ETH option is -3%, which suggests sustainable interest between strategies stubborn and bear. This has been the case in the last four weeks and is a slight improvement in relation to the reading from the previous week +1%.

Related: ETH News update – Ether Treasury Ether Shopping can call a rally up to USD 3,000

Recent profits from the ETH price seem to a immense extent driven by a four -day net influx of $ 468 million for current funds with the US Stock Exchange (ETF). Additional supporting factors were ETH purchases via Shaplink Gaming (SBET) and BIT DIGITAL (BTBT) as part of the tax strategy.

Despite this, it remains unclear whether institutional demand will persist. For now, ETH derivatives reflect the restricted belief during a lasting rally.

This article is used for general information purposes and should not be and should not be treated as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are themselves and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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