A huge up-to-date research report on Ben Harvey and Will Clemente III, commissioned by the manufacturer of the Keyrock market, projects that Bitcoin can reach USD 160,000 by the end of 2025-but only if the capital structure supporting the Bitcoin Treasury company (BTC-TCS) will remain intact. . tests“BTC Treasuries discovered: contributions, leverage and sustainable development of exposure to a representative”, distinguishes capital structures, impact on the market and debt profiles of the rapidly growing group “Bitcoin tax companies” (BTC-TCS), run by a strategy (renamed microphone).

Impact of Bitcoin tax companies

Harvey and Clemente are open with a surprising number: “Bitcoin treasury companies have accumulated about 725,000 BTC, which corresponds to 3.64 percent of the entire BTC delivery.” A significant part of this Hoard is located in 597,000 ends of the strategy, but analysts follow several players from the Digital Marathon and Metaplanet to newer participants, such as the twenty capital-from which the combined exhibition exceeds us in the case of Spot-ETF Holdings by more than half.

However, the main forecast of the report is clearly conditional. The Bull Keyrock case assigns thirty percent of the probability that global liquidity remains flushed, institutional demand accelerates, and Bitcoin collects fifty percent at today’s levels, “pushing BTC to over 160 USD by EOY”. This result rests on the brittle flywheel of net value contributions: BTC-TC shares still trade on average from seventy-three guesthouses to the dollar value, which are looked after. These contributions allow management boards to spend up-to-date shares “accretionally”, transform sentiments into fresh BTC and – honestly – serves $ 33.7 billion in debt and privileged shares, which the sector has run away to finance their buyer.

No company illustrates a reflective loop better than a strategy. From August 2020, Michael Saylor has fueled Bitcoin Per-Share (BPS) up eleven times, an annual rate of sixty-three people, which exceeds 6.7 percent of CAGR needed to justify the current premium company with ninety-one five people. “If the investor believes that the BPS strategy growth rates will be long -term,” say the authors, “MTST holding would be much more favorable in terms of BTC than the Holding Spot BTC.” Despite this, this account assumes that the capital bonus remains on the surface; If the sentiment turns, dilution takes place from accretion to the penalty day by day.

Debt accuracy is another stress point. BTC-TCS owes the wall of convertible notes in 2027-28. Harvey and Clemente calculate that the strategy itself issued a debt of $ 8.5 billion in the amount of $ 8.5 billion; The marathon occurs $ 1.3 billion. Most instruments transfer zero-low coupons and conversion prices well below current levels of action, but deep Bitcoin payments can augment shares as part of these strikes, forcing companies to pay in cash or refinancing in much sharper conditions. “Since many BTC-TC valuations are strictly correlated with Bitcoin price efficiency,” the authors warn, “the sharp flow of BTC can reduce the value of capital, increasing the risk of violation of the conversion threshold.”

The report divides the universe into generational names of cash flow, such as Metaplanet, Coinshares and Boya Interactive-Father with eight or more of the starting belt district-and players depending on capital, such as marathon, Nakamoto and DEFI technologies, which can face threatening over three percent percent to remain a solid. If these contributions compress, the issue of capital “becomes purely divorced”, and tax companies can be forced to sell Bitcoins, undermining the substitute thesis, which justifies their existence.

Basic case

The basic Keyrock housing, to which it attributes the highest probability, predicts that Bitcoin ends $ 135,000, and NAV Premium cools down in the range of thirty to six. In this environment, well -managed Treasuries are still exceeding the place, but trade in lever loses shine. Scenario of the bear-the lowest but non-trivial chances of twenty percent of Bitcoins with the excess of up-to-date treasury offers, which flood the market with supply. In this world, contributions disappear, refinancing windows closed and “the entire investment case for BTC-TCS is under pressure.”

Harvey and Clemente do not reject the BTC-TC model; Rather, they define this as a high beta overlay, which strengthens both the height and the risk of solvency associated with Bitcoin itself. They attribute the thesis of the Saylor’s “Bitcoin performance”-using the broadcast of the action financed by the contribution to the intricate coin resources-as so far effectively effective strategy, but they warn that it is based on the fine balance of stubborn moods, affordable capital and precise execution. “The NAV bonus has extremely important here”, sums up the study, “assuming that BTC-TC has no basic operational activity that can cover debt payments or is completely free of debt payments.”

Whether Bitcoin can be up to USD 160,000 by December 31 depends less on the forecasts of the Hash rate or macro modeling than in the further vicar of capital investors who want to pay the dollar for the dollar set BTC. If investors blink-if the contributions disappear or the interchangeable mature collides with a wide risk-the lever that has fueled tax companies so far, can transform “one of the best operating actions on the planet” in the most crowded market exit. For now, Keyrock’s research leaves readers a uncomplicated countdown: hold the line and the path to discover prices remains intact; Sleep, and proxy trade can relax long before Novel Year’s fireworks.

During the BTC press it traded for $ 117,788.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com