The XRP price is back under pressure and hovering around $2.80-$2.83 after repeatedly failing to break the psychological $3.00 barrier.
In derivatives, momentum weakened as open futures fell to around $8.85 billion, after briefly exceeding $9 billion, and liquidation data shows the strain for the bulls, over $11 million was lost in one day in long positions compared to just $2.4 million in tiny positions.
With the RSI indicator hovering around the upper 30s/40s. on lower time frames and a negative MACD deviation, the setup favors consolidation or further decline unless spot demand materializes again.
On-chain flows eliminate risk as whales XRP is distributed
Under the hood, flows are skewed defensively. Stock exchange data shows that there are over 320 million of them XRP it moved to centralized systems last week, pushing foreign exchange reserves to nine-month highs, which usually means bondholders are preparing to sell.
Similarly, whale cohorts (1-10 million XRP) distributed approximately 440 million tokens over 30 days, adding to pliable tape stocks.
BNB has upgraded XRP to third place by market capitalization amid record BNB chain activity, while uncertainty around the U.S. spot ETF timeline keeps XRP’s macro catalysts unclear. Until the winds subside or the tides reverse, an escalate in resistance will likely be met with supply.
Key levels to watch for XRP price: $2.68 or $3.15 Decide on the next step
Technically, XRP is contracting inside the descending triangle, forming a key shelf at $2.68-$2.70. Experienced traders warn that a weekly close below $2.687 could open a actual move towards $2.22 (approximately -20% from current prices).
XRP's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: XRPUSD on Tradingview
Immediate resistance is $2.92-$3.00; above this $3.15 line is the line that would invalidate the bear pattern and move the targets to $3.60-$4.50.
In the near future, watch out for:
- Point-driven bids and withering funding through bounces (healthier than leveraged upsides).
- Changes in foreign exchange reserves (economic downturn would reduce selling pressure).
- Open reconstruction of interests without overflowing debts.
With easing futures rates and whale distributions, risks remain skewed to the downside while XRP remains below $3.00. Bulls need immaculate, high volume recovery of $3.00-$3.15 to change momentum; otherwise, a retest of $2.70 remains in play and potentially $2.22 in the event of a breakdown.
Cover photo from ChatGPT, XRPUSD on Tradingview
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