Key takeaways:

• Ether Treasury companies are struggling with multi-million-dollar unrealized losses, raising concerns about their sustainability.

• Ether treasuries trading below NAV are signaling a decline in confidence, potentially putting further pressure on the ETH price.

• ETH price fractal points to $2,500 as the 200-week moving average becomes the last line of defense.

Ether (ETH) has fallen 30% in the past 30 days, falling below $3,000 to a four-month low of $2,806 on Thursday. Technical indicators and institutional demand are bearish, increasing the chances of a further correction below $2,500.

The price of ether reflects the fractal of the 2022 era

ETH price is facing a four-week losing streak as the 2022 bearish fractal points to a deeper altcoin correction. A market fractal is a repeating pattern that allows traders to identify trend reversals on charts. Ether is currently painting a bearish fractal pattern, initially observed in 2022.

Related: ETH is entering a “buy zone,” but volatility-averse investors are taking a “wait and see” approach.

The chart below illustrates that the pattern consists of a acute decline from the 2021 all-time high of $4,800, with the price bottoming near the 200-week SMA.

The same scenario plays out in 2025, with the price down 41% from its current record high of $4,955 reached in August. This suggests a deeper correction is in the offing, with the 200-week SMA at $2,450 providing the last line of defense for bulls.

Meanwhile, the Ether supertrend indicator sent a “sell” signal on its weekly chart, which most recently led to a 66% price drop when it occurred in March 2025.

A similar confirmation in January 2022 was followed by an 82% price decline, bottoming just below the 200-week SMA, as shown in the chart below.

If history repeats itself, ETH could see a deeper correction to $2,500 due to reduced institutional demand and waning network activity.

Ethereum treasury companies are underwater

Ether’s precipitous withdrawal pushed the average Ether treasury company into the red, resulting in multi-million-dollar paper losses.

Data from Capriole Investments can be seen that these companies experienced negative returns on their ETH holdings ranging from 25% to 48%. DAT’s top 10 stocks are in the red on the weekly and daily time frames as shown in the chart below.

BitMine Immersion Technologies, holding 3.56 million ETH (2.94% of circulating supply), has seen an ROI of -28% and -45% over the last seven and 30 days, respectively.

BitMine is currently losing $1,000 per ETH purchased, representing a cumulative unrealized loss of $3.7 billion across all holdings.

🚨 LATEST: BitMine Has an Unrealized Loss of $3.7 Billion Due to Huge $ETH position.

Despite the risks, will we see more DATs in the coming months? pic.twitter.com/11V5YZT2qO

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 20, 2025

SharpLink, The Ether Machine and Galaxy Digital also reported multi-million-dollar losses, down 50% to 80% from yearly highs.

Capriole Investments data also shows that the market value to net asset value (mNAV) ratio – a metric used to assess the valuation of digital treasury assets – of most of these companies has fallen below 1, signaling a reduced ability to raise capital.

Data from StrategicETHreserve.xyz indicates that since November 11, the collective holdings of strategic reserves and ETFs have decreased by 280,414 ETH.

As Cointelegraph reported, global exchange-traded products, including U.S. spot Ether ETFs, experienced their largest weekly outflow since February, reinforcing the continued decline in institutional demand for ETH.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.