Key conclusions

• Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with approximately 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet.

• The company’s model is based on raising capital and converting it into BTC while maintaining the market value to Bitcoin (mNAV) above 1.

• CEO Phong Le described any Bitcoin sale as a “last resort” option that would only be considered if mNAV falls below 1 and access to modern capital deteriorates significantly.

• Even if Strategy decides to sell some of its holdings, Bitcoin will be trading in a market with daily volume in the tens of billions, and any selling will likely be targeted rather than a full exit.

Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, has spent the last five years transforming itself into what it is calls “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin treasury company.”

At the beginning of December 2025, it held almost 650,000 Bitcoin (BTC), representing over 3% of the 21 million supply and by far the largest stack owned by a public company.

For many time-honored investors, Strategy stock has become a kind of leveraged proxy for Bitcoin. Instead of buying BTC directly, they chose stocks because the company raises capital and converts it to Bitcoin.

The current debate stems from CEO Phong Le’s recent comments that Bitcoin sales are possible under very specific conditions. Headlines often focus on the word “sell,” but the company portrays this as risk management under extreme stress rather than a change to its long-term thesis on Bitcoin.

This article discusses how a plan works and what can spur sales, helping readers interpret future news without panic or fear of missing out (FOMO). This guide is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Did you know? Last estimates suggest that institutions currently hold almost 20% of all Bitcoin mined.

How Strategy’s Bitcoin engine actually works

Financially, the day-to-day strategy moves in a relatively plain manner. Business:

1. It raises capital in time-honored markets through market-placed common stock programs, multiple series of perpetual preferred stock such as STRK and STRF, and occasionally convertible debt.

2. It uses most of this capital to buy more Bitcoins, which it treats as the main reserve asset of the state treasury.

3. It tracks a set of metrics to assess whether it remains sustainable and beneficial to shareholders.

Two of these indicators are vital here:

• Bitcoin per share (BPS): How much BTC is actually behind each fully diluted share. The strategy publishes this as a key performance indicator.

• Market capitalization to net asset value (nNAV): The ratio of Strategy’s total market value to the market value of its Bitcoin holdings. If mNAV is above 1, the stock is trading at a premium to BTC.

When a company trades at a well premium, it can raise modern equity or preferred stock with less dilution and continue to grow its Bitcoin stack. This basic case – where Strategy raises premium, buys more BTC and develops BPS – is still the model that management believes it is pursuing.

“Last resort” sales trigger.

A modern feature is a clearly defined emergency stop switch for this model.

In recent interviews, Le explained this Strategy would only consider selling some Bitcoins if two conditions were met simultaneously:

1. mNAV falls below 1, which means that the company’s market capitalization falls at or below the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

2. Access to fresh capital will run out – for example, if investors are no longer willing to buy its shares or preference shares on realistic terms.

He described the BTC sale in this scenario as a “final toolkit” option to meet obligations such as preferred dividends, rather than as a indefinite plan to sell the Treasury.

To put it simply:

If the stock is trading at or below the BTC value and the company cannot refinance, selling part of the BTC becomes the least bad way to protect the entire structure.

Which could realistically push the Strategy in this direction

Before you even consider using the switch as a last resort, there are a few moving parts that will need to be aligned.

Macro price and Bitcoin

Bitcoin has already retreated sharply from its October high near $126,000 to the mid-$80,000s, a decline of about 30%. Deeper or longer declines reduce the value of Strategy’s BTC stack while putting pressure on its stock.

Stock performance and mNAV

Strategy’s market cap premium over Bitcoin has already narrowed following a 30-60% decline in share prices from prior highs. In mid-November, the company’s quotations briefly remained at a level close to or even lower than the spot value of its shares, which suggested an mNAV close to 1.

Financing terms

The business is based on the ability to issue modern common and perpetual preferred stock under existing shelf registrations and at-the-market (ATM) programs. If these offers dropped sharply or if investors demanded significantly higher rates of return, it would mean stress on the financing side.

Internal responsibilities

The strategy has significant annual liabilities in the form of preferred dividends and debt service. Analysts estimate preferred dividend liabilities in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually.

Management continues to describe itself as a long-term Bitcoin battery, and the above scenarios describe a severely stressed environment.

Did you know? Onchain’s forensic research suggests that 3-4 million BTC will likely be lost forever in dead wallets, meaning a significant portion of the supply will never return to the market.

What selling the strategy would and wouldn’t mean for Bitcoin

Given that the Strategy is in force 650,000 BTC, any change from “never sell” to “can sell under stress” naturally attracts traders’ attention.

However, context is vital:

• Market Size: The daily volume of spot and derivative transactions on Bitcoin regularly reaches tens of billions of dollars. At the same time, US Bitcoin spot funds (ETFs) saw single-day inflows and outflows measured in the billions. A controlled sale of part of Strategy’s shares, even if significant, would enter a very huge and liquid market.

• Likely scale and pace: Based on Le’s own comments, any sale in a stress scenario would be targeted and partial, with the goal of meeting obligations or maintaining capital structure, rather than exiting Bitcoin.

• Upfront prices: Markets often begin to consider these opportunities as soon as they become known. The recent declines in BTC and Strategy stock prices, along with the mNAV debate, are an example of this process.

It is vital to note that a conditional sale framework as a last resort is not the same as declaring that a huge BTC sale is imminent.

Did you know? In the third quarter of 2025, average daily cryptocurrency spot trading volume was approximately $155 billion, with another $14 billion in notional cryptocurrency derivatives in circulation every day at the CME itself.

How to follow the next moves of the Strategy

For readers who want to follow the story without reacting to every headline or meme, a few noticeable indicators can assist readers better understand the situation:

Start with primary sources.

• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filingssuch as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, show modern capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.

• Strategy and “Bitcoin Shopping” Press Releases side summarize your recent purchases and total inventory.

Watch your core metrics.

• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filingssuch as 8 Ks and prospectus supplements, show modern capital raises and updated Bitcoin holdings.

• Strategy and “Bitcoin Shopping” Press Releases side summarize your recent purchases and total inventory.

• Social media activity often reflects sentiment, not data. “Green dot” posts, laser-eyed memes and doomsday threads can be useful for reading sentiment, but it’s worth cross-checking any forced sale or insolvency claims based on filings and numbers.

Note: Financial circumstances, time horizons and risk tolerance vary from person to person. This information is general in nature and should not be construed as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any assets. Readers should consider consulting a qualified financial professional for guidance specific to their situation.