Analysts and investors are wondering why the cryptocurrency is not in a bull market given the number of positive factors that have occurred this year.
“At some point we have to admit that something is structurally broken in the cryptocurrency market” – Ran Neuner, cryptocurrency specialist at CNBC he said on Tuesday.
He said a number of favorable factors should be contributing to the performance of cryptocurrency markets, including increased liquidity, a pro-crypto U.S. government, the launch of various exchange-traded funds, major institutional investments and crypto companies, as well as mighty performance in classic markets such as gold, silver and major stock indices.
However, cryptocurrency markets are on track to end the year lower than they started, with total market capitalization down more than 32% from an all-time high of $4.4 trillion in early October and down almost 13% from January 1.
Two possible outcomes for cryptocurrencies
Neuner said there are two possible outcomes for cryptocurrencies: discovering “what’s actually broken and who’s selling” or “the mother of all catch-up trades because that’s how markets work.”
Economist Adam Kobeissi he said that “one day we will look back on the last 2 months of seemingly daily massive cryptocurrency liquidations and what is happening will become crystal clear:”
“Crypto Experiences Structural Change Amid Historic Leverage Levels.”
Related: Most cryptocurrency sectors have lagged Bitcoin over the past 3 months: Glassnode
“PlanB” analyst he called it “an epic battle until sellers run out of ammo,” explaining that selling pressure continues to come from “OGs who have been traumatized in 2021,” technical investors looking at the Relative Strength Index and those who believe in the four-year cycle and an upcoming bear market.
Crypto winter has already arrived
Meanwhile, some analysts believe that the bear market is already underway.
“Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risky asset to value in a slowing economy,” 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph.
“Retail participation never meaningfully reversed this cycle, and value creation remained narrowly focused in Bitcoin rather than expanding into risky assets. Winter is not approaching; it has already arrived.”
It’s really not that bad
Despite the impoverished performance of spot markets, the industry’s fundamentals remain solid.
“While prices may have fallen below expectations, this year has seen more structural progress than any other in cryptocurrency history,” Erik Lowe, head of content at blockchain firm Pantera, he said in Tuesday’s report.
Like Neuner, he cited several milestone achievements for the industry this year, including a change in staffing and positioning at U.S. financial regulators, the creation of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and digital asset stocks, and the growth of stablecoin supplies and the onchain value of tokenized real-world assets.
“From that perspective, we believe there has been no more important year for the industry than 2025. That’s the year we started laying deep caissons to support sustainable, long-term growth.”
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