Bitcoin may have ended its historic four-year cycle, signaling a year of declines ahead, despite widespread analyst expectations of an extended cycle driven by unfavorable regulatory factors.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) all-time high of $125,000 on October 6 may have signaled the peak of Bitcoin’s current four-year halving cycle, both in terms of “price and timing,” according to Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomic research at asset manager Fidelity.
“While I am still a secular supporter of Bitcoin, I am concerned that Bitcoin may have completed another 4-year halving phase,” Timmer wrote in Thursday’s issue of X post. “Bitcoin winter lasted about a year, so I have a feeling that 2026 could be an “off year” (or “off year”) for Bitcoin. Support is 65-75 thousand. dollars.”
Related: Bitcoin treasuries stalled in the fourth quarter, but top holders continue to accumulate sats
The cryptocurrency market could see more gains amid fundamental regulatory headwinds
Timmer’s analysis is at odds with other cryptocurrency analysts who expect the growing number of regulated cryptocurrency investment products to lead to an extension of the bull market cycle into 2026.
Notably, Tom Shaughnessy, co-founder of research firm Delphi Digital, expects new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026, after investor sentiment improves following the record $19 billion cryptocurrency market crash that occurred in early October.
“We are going through a one-off catastrophic 10/10 liquidation that crashed the market,” Shaughnessy wrote in Friday’s X postadding:
“When all this is accomplished, we will reach $BTC ATH in 2026 as prices rubber band to reflect progress beyond 10/10.”
Shaughnessy said cryptocurrency market valuations will be driven by “fundamental progress” in the industry, including increasing Wall Street implementations and regulatory changes.
Related: Bitcoiners are pushing for a quantum-resistant BIP-360 upgrade as the debate heats up
Policy experts are also predicting a significant year of progress in US cryptocurrency legislation, which could bring more institutional investment into the cryptocurrency space.
“I expect 2026 to be another significant year for cryptocurrency regulation, but it will look different than the last,” Cathy Yoon, general counsel at research firm Temporal and Solana, told Cointelegraph on the Harmonic block building system.
“Once stablecoin regulations are adopted, the real impact will come from implementation – research, disclosures and how these assets are integrated into payments and financial infrastructure,” she said.
However, investor public sentiment dropped significantly earlier this week when Bitcoin fell below $85,000. Since then, bearish comments have dominated social media platforms including X, Reddit and Telegram. According to to the Santiment market intelligence platform.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency industry’s best-performing traders in terms of returns, who are tracked as “intelligent money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, are also betting on a near-term decline in most leading cryptocurrencies.
While smart money investors net lost $123 million on Bitcoin, the same cohort was betting on the price of Ether (ETH) rising, with cumulative net long positions of $475 million. Nansen data shows.
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