A screenshot attributed to Fundstrat Research is sparking debate over whether Tom Lee’s firm is predicting a acute correction in cryptocurrency markets in the first half of 2026 – despite Lee’s recent public push for Ethereum.

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Bearish call Fundstrata vs. The case of Tom Lee’s bull

The document has been attributed to Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, and includes a base case scenario calling for a “significant drawdown in the first half of 2026,” with target ranges for bitcoin at $60,000-$65,000, ether at $1,800-$2,000 and salt at $50-$75. The note added that these levels would represent “attractive year-end opportunities” and that if the view is wrong, “playing defense” is still preferred until strength is confirmed.

The ETH range has sparked debate in the market. Ether is trading around $3,000, which means $1,800 is a significant downside scenario when considering the face value.

What controversy there is is due to its closeness to Lee’s message. During Binance Blockchain Week, Lee stated that ethereum worth around $3,000 looks “seriously undervalued,” which sounds very different from a research framework clearly mapping a potential move towards the high $1,000 mark. Over the past few weeks, Lee has publicly shared his predictions that ETH could reach $20,000 next year and $62,000 in the next few years.

Farrell he replied directly at X on December 20, arguing that the phrase “internal conflict” misunderstands how Fundstrat works. The company, he said, has several analysts with independent processes, each designed for different client goals and time horizons.

Lee’s work, Farrell wrote, is aimed at huge institutions that can allocate 1-5% to BTC and ETH and is organized around long-term macro and “secular” trends. In turn, Farrell’s study is aimed at investors with greater exposure to cryptocurrencies – he was referring to portfolios with a ~20%+ allocation – where dynamic risk management and rebalancing are more vital than maintaining a single long-term thesis through volatility.

This distinction is crucial to interpreting the goals of the leaked style. Farrell’s public explanation was not “we are bearish” but rather “we are cautious in the near term.” He said markets appear to be “near perfect” prices while risks remain elevated – citing government shutdown dynamics, trade volatility, uncertainty around AI capital spending and a change in Federal Reserve chairmanship, as well as tight high-yield spreads and low inter-asset volatility.

He also highlighted mixed flow conditions. According to Farrell, long-term demand for ETFs may raise as wirehouses join the exchange, but in the brief term, pressures remain from OG selling, miners, fund redemptions and even the possibility of MSCI MicroStrategy delisting – a position that stands out because it suggests that the risk outlook extends beyond spot cryptocurrencies and into the crypto sophisticated, which has become a key barometer of liquidity and sentiment.

Farrell’s basic scenario: “an early-year bounce followed by another drawdown in the first half of the year, creating a more attractive year-end opportunity. If I’m wrong, I’d rather wait for confirmation (trend break, flows, momentum, or clear catalyst). Crypto is reflexive, and for my purposes, patience is the name of the game in no man’s land.”

The thread concludes with a point that many readers missed in the initial cycle of screenshot outrage: Farrell still expects BTC and ETH to “challenge new ATHs by the end of the year,” describing a shorter, shallower bear market that could compress the conventional narrative into a four-year cycle. “For those aware of the forecast, I still expect BTC and ETH to challenge new ATHs by the end of the year, effectively ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter and shallower bear market,” he wrote via X.

At the time of publication, Ethereum was trading at $3,043.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com