As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to underperform gold and major stock indexes, investors are increasingly wondering whether this cycle will play out differently than expected. In a fresh interview with analyst Benjamin Cowen, we explore why Bitcoin is lagging behind time-honored markets and why the current setup may seem strikingly similar to that of 2019.
Cowen points out that while stocks and gold respond positively to expectations of future monetary easing, Bitcoin appears much more sensitive to actual liquidity conditions rather than optimism alone.
He explains that this distinction helps explain why BTC is struggling to gain momentum even as broader markets are climbing higher. According to Cowen, Bitcoin often requires a clearer macroeconomic catalyst before it can outperform, and that catalyst may not be in place yet.
Sentiments are a key topic of discussion. Unlike previous cycle highs, which were characterized by widespread enthusiasm and retail speculation, this market is characterized by relative apathy.
Cowen explains why boosting in a low interest environment is unusual for Bitcoin and how this difference could shape the path forward over the next few years.
The conversation also touched upon the debate on the four-year cycle. While many commentators argue that Bitcoin’s historical cycle framework is no longer relevant, Cowen presents data suggesting that broader market cycles, not just cryptocurrency-specific narratives, still play a significant role.
It explains why macro headwinds, including labor market trends and tight financial conditions, could continue to weigh on Bitcoin through 2026, even if there are short-term gains along the way.
Instead of focusing on exact price targets, the intelligence focuses on process rather than prediction; how investors can think about cycles, risk and patience in an environment where uncomplicated liquidity is not guaranteed. Cowen also briefly discusses what this means for altcoins and why expectations of rapid rotations may be wrong.
Watch the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel to see Cowen’s full reasoning, charts, and deeper macro context behind his views.
