January’s 10% rise in the price of Ether (ETH) has refocused analyst attention on the daily chart, with price structure pointing to higher prices, but only if the key daily trend is restored.

Key takeaways:

• Ether is close to completing an intraday double bottom with a target of $3,900.

• The 200-period EMA remains the decisive trend that ETH needs to reverse.

• Delta volume data shows buying pressure from retail, but whales continued to limit exposure.

A double bottom is forming as ETH tests its structural strength

Ether’s daily chart shows a developing double bottom that formed in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting the repeated defense of the demand zone. If confirmed, the breakout move would target the $3,900 area, or about 20% above current levels.

However, the immediate obstacle is the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA). As the broader trend turned bearish in November, ETH failed to regain this level twice, with each rejection leading to continued declines. With price retesting at the EMA, the altcoin is facing a key inflection point.

A sustained daily close above the 200-EMA would indicate acceptance above long-term trend resistance. From a structure perspective, a mighty close above $3,300 would also signal a bullish structure break on the daily chart, strengthening the double bottom thesis.

Related: Ethereum Staking Changes as Validator Output Queue Empty

Delta volume data highlights a retail-led recovery

Cumulative volume delta (CVD) tracks the net difference between market buy and sell orders over time. Rising CVD signals buyer dominance, where aggressive buyers raise prices rather than wait passively.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that both spot and futures taker CVDs have trended higher over the past three weeks, indicating continued demand in spot and leveraged markets. When they converge, it usually reflects the buyer’s belief rather than covering the shorts.

However, Hyblock Capital data indicated a discrepancy beneath the surface. Whale portfolios ($100,000-$10 million) posted a negative cumulative delta of $40 million this week, signaling net selling. Meanwhile, retail traders ($1,000-$10,000) and mid-market traders ($10,000-$100,000) have seen slight positive deltas of $3.40-$28 million over the last six days.

This split suggests that smaller participants are driving Ether’s recovery. Whether ETH manages to break above the 200-EMA could determine whether larger players return to the market or if the price stalls below resistance.

Related: Grayscale announces first Ethereum staking payout for US-listed ETFs

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