The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), may fall below $2,000 in February in a classic bearish setup.

Key takeaways:

• The ETH split keeps the downside target at $1,665 in focus.

• MVRV bands also indicate price is moving towards $1,725 ​​or lower before a potential low occurs.

ETH risks falling by 25% in February.

On Wednesday, ETH entered a breakout phase of the dominant inverted cup and handle (IC&H) pattern. This could extend a downtrend that has already wiped out about 60% of its August 2025 peak.

The IC&H pattern forms when price forms a rounded top and then drifts upwards in a compact recovery channel. It usually subsides when the price drops below the neckline support, often dropping all the way down to the maximum cup height.

In January, the ether broke below the inverted cup-and-handle neckline near $2,960. It later rebounded to retest this level as resistance, which is a common move after a breakdown, and then resumed its decline.

ETH’s rebound also stalled below the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs, which acted as upper resistance.

These convergence rates have raised ETH’s chances of falling towards the IC&H split target of around $1,665, implying a 25% decline in February or early March.

Historically, the reverse cup and handle achieves the predicted negative target with a success rate of 82%, according to the study test by Chartswatcher.

From a macro perspective, Ethereum’s downside risk is rising as investors scale back bets on cryptocurrencies, fearing the market could slip into a broader downturn in 2026, similar to previous “four-year cycle” declines.

The fear of bursting the “AI bubble” is also forcing traders to avoid riskier bets such as cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum’s MVRV bands point to a target of $1,725

Ethereum’s technical downside target has been sitting just below the low end of the MVRV extreme deviation price bands, currently at $1,725.

These bands are onchain price zones that show when ETH is trading below or above the average price at which investors have recently moved their coins.

Historically, the price of ETH has fallen near or even below the low of the MVRV band before bottoming out.

This includes the April 2025 rebound when the price of ETH surged 90% monthly after testing the lowest of the MVRV deviation band around $1,390. A similar rebound occurred in June 2018.

Related: ETH Funding Rate Turns Negative, but US Macro Conditions Mute Buy Signal

Therefore, Ether price may fall to or below $1,725 ​​in February, which is consistent with IC&H’s downside target.