On Tuesday, Ether (ETH) struggled to maintain prices above $2,000, and against this backdrop, analysts noted that the 31% drop in Ether’s price in 2026 is part of a familiar price fractal from previous bull markets.

Key takeaways:

• ETH’s recent drop to $1,736 may mark just the first of many lows in a longer consolidation phase.

• Onchain-based data clusters cost $1,300 to $2,000, solidifying this range as a potential demand zone.

The ETH fractal indicates a longer base building phase

A long-term fractal comparison of the 2021-2022 and 2024-2025 cycles suggests that the acute sell-off in Ether reflects a pattern where an initial bottom is formed before the price bottoms out again due to further market weakness.

On the weekly chart, ETH’s decline towards the $1,730 region looks more like a “first low” rather than a final market bottom.

In 2021, ETH spent 12 months consolidating around the first low ($1,730) and lower support band ($885), allowing leverage to reset and demand to recover.

Using this framework, ETH could continue to trade around $1,300 to $2,000, with possible downside tests towards the $1,500-$1,600 zone before a solid base forms.

Onchain cost-based data lists $1,300-$2,000 as the demand zone

Ether UTXO (URPD) realized price distribution data highlights opportunities for longer-term consolidation. Immense supply clusters remain above current prices, with $2,822 accounting for 5.86% of ETH supply and $3,119 accounting for 6.15%, creating huge overhead resistance.

Below current spot prices, there are noticeable clusters at $1,881 (1.58M ETH) and $1,237, suggesting potential demand zones if the price continues to fall.

Structurally, $1,237 stands out as a potential cycle low, followed by intermediate support near $1,584 and stronger acceptance around $1,881 where supply concentration increases.

Derivatives data are consistent with this view. Liquidation heat map shows cumulative long liquidations at risk of $4 billion to $6 billion, ranging from $1,455 to $1,700, and these are levels that sellers may still be targeting.

However, over $12 billion in miniature liquidity accumulates to $3,000, meaning that after liquidity from the downside is absorbed, the directional bias could shift higher in the coming months.

Related: Analysts Debate Whether Ether Has Capitulated or Needs to Continue to Fall

What provides Ether’s structural support?

Data from CryptoQuant can be seen Ether withdrawals from exchanges rose to the highest level since October 2025, with net outflows exceeding 220,000 ETH. On Thursday, Binance reported daily net outflows of approximately 158,000 ETH, the highest since August 2025.

These flows coincided with ETH trading from $1,800 to $2,000, suggesting risk-based accumulation or repositioning at these levels.

Founder of MNCapital Michaël van de Poppe highlighted similar dynamics, noting that price often lags network and narrative growth.

Stablecoin trading volume on Ethereum has increased by approximately 200% over the past 18 months, even as the ETH price remains approximately 30% lower, a divergence that could lead to a parabolic revaluation of the altcoin.

Related: Ethereum Foundation Partners with SEALs to Fight Wallet Drain