Cryptocurrency wallet creators and security companies are pushing post-quantum products even though large-scale quantum computers capable of cracking Bitcoin do not yet exist.

US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 and called for migration before 2030.

As standards bodies plan for a gradual crypto transformation, parts of the wallet market are already cashing in on this future.

“I think it’s a bit of a tax on fear. We know that quantum computers are a long way away – still five to 15 years away,” Alexei Zamiatin, co-founder of Build on Bitcoin (BOB), told Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin is trading about 50% below its all-time high set in October 2025. Among several theories trying to explain the recent decline in cryptocurrency values, there is growing concern that the risks associated with quantum computing may be deterring institutional capital from Bitcoin.

Quantum risk is not zero and it is not sudden

An often-discussed quantum vulnerability is Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signature algorithm, which authorizes transactions. Theoretically, a powerful quantum computer could obtain the private key from the disclosed public key and seize the coins located at a given address.

Today’s quantum hardware cannot break the signatures of elliptic curves. This does not mean, however, that threatening groups are waiting for a technological breakthrough.

“Many users expect one Q-Day in the future when crypto suddenly fails. In fact, the risk accumulates gradually as crypto assumptions weaken and exposure increases,” Kapil Dhiman, CEO and co-founder of Quranium, told Cointelegraph.

“Collect now, decryption and decryption later strategies are already active, which means the data and signatures released today are being collected for future opportunities,” he said.

Related: What if quantum computers had already cracked Bitcoin?

In the case of Bitcoin, the problem is older, exposed public keys. Once a public key appears on the chain, it remains permanently perceptible. Up-to-date address formats concealed public keys until the coins are spent.

Bitcoin researcher at CoinShares, Christopher Bendiksen, said that only 10,230 Bitcoins (BTC) are held at addresses with publicly disclosed public keys that would be vulnerable to a sufficiently powerful quantum attack.

The business of quantum fear

While the Bitcoin community debates how far along quantum computing is, cryptocurrency wallet makers are running on their own clock.

Trezor’s Secure 7 is marketed as a “quantum-ready” hardware wallet. Separately, qLabs recently introduced the Quantum-Sig wallet, which it claims embeds post-quantum signatures directly into the signing process.

BOB’s Zamiatin argued that portfolio-level hedging will not solve Bitcoin’s quantum risk. Bitcoin transactions are authorized using a signature scheme built into the protocol itself. If this cryptography were ever broken, fixing it would require a change at the protocol level.

“Personally, I wouldn’t invest a lot of money in a quantum wallet right now because I don’t even know what kind of protection Bitcoin gives me. In my opinion, it can’t really give me any protection because Bitcoin doesn’t have a quantum-resistant signature scheme yet.”

Ada Jonušė, executive director of qLabs, agreed that full quantum immunity requires defense at the protocol level. But discounting current infrastructure as a tax on fear ignores the transitory nature of safety improvements.

“Quantum risk is not binary. Even before protocol-level migration occurs, there is a real collect now, decrypt later threat,” she told Cointelegraph, arguing that qLabs’ approach limits the exposed key surface.

“Quantum readiness is about proactive infrastructure planning, not about monetizing fear,” Jonušė said.

Related: Bitcoin’s quantum countdown has already begun, says CEO Naoris

Trezor also admitted that blockchains themselves need to change their cryptography and protocol. However, Tomáš Sušánka, the company’s chief technology officer, told Cointelegraph that wallets can implement security immediately, rather than waiting for prolonged blockchain updates.

“When blockchains are updated, wallets must also support the same algorithms to maintain compatibility,” Sušánka said. He added that Trezor Secure 7 uses a post-quantum algorithm to protect against future quantum computers forging digital signatures and signing malicious firmware updates.

Market Incentives and the Obstacle to Bitcoin Governance

Unlike iPhones, which are released almost every year, hardware wallets and other security products typically have multi-year lifecycles. Introducing post-quantum capabilities in a novel product gives customers a reason to purchase a novel device, even if the threat is remote.

“Yes, parts of the crypto industry do have incentives to increase quantum risk, but that incentive is increasingly driven by regulatory and institutional adjustments rather than short-term selling alone,” said Dhiman, whose Quranium powers the Qsafe wallet.

“For most users today, quantum-backed wallets function as long-term insurance. The responsible approach is to acknowledge the coming transformation, avoid fear-driven urgency, and choose systems designed to evolve without forcing sudden replacements.”

Several blockchains are developing post-quantum strategies, but Bitcoin has been relatively indecisive. Some of the most influential voices online have dismissed the threat as a problem for the future.

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has a universally recognizable figure. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin has advocated for post-quantum preparations, and the network is moving in that direction.

According to Zamyatin, in the case of Bitcoin, the problem is social consensus, coordination and willingness to act.

“It’s not like that [Bitcoin has] one person everyone will follow. This will require broad social consensus, which is very complex to achieve,” he said.

Wallet developers agree that full quantum protection must come from the protocol. But even if the risks are years away, they can act as insurance, helping investors sleep better at night, although some say they constitute a tax on fear.

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