Blockchain transaction data linked to cryptocurrency payments could be an early sign of emerging drug crises, according to a fresh report from analytics firm Chainalytic.
The testwhich examined illicit market activity in obscure web drug and fraud ecosystems, found that cryptocurrency flows linked to obscure web markets reached nearly $2.6 billion in 2025, showing that online drug markets continue to operate at scale despite repeated attacks by law enforcement. Merchants typically receive payments from personal wallets and centralized exchanges.
In addition to measuring criminal activity, the Chainalytic project argued that the data could track real health outcomes. Cryptocurrency payments to suppliers of fentanyl precursor chemicals dropped sharply from mid-2023. A few months later, overdose deaths also dropped in the United States and Canada, peaking in 2023.
According to the report, monitoring transactions linked to precursor suppliers could provide three to six months’ advance warning before overdose trends show up in official public health statistics.
Crypto drug purchases linked to increased hospitalization
The analysis also compared transaction data with Canadian hospital records. Miniature payments of less than $500 showed no clear association with emergency visits or deaths. Larger transfers have been associated with increasing numbers of stimulant-related hospitalizations and fatalities, suggesting that transactions likely reflect bulk purchases or redistribution rather than personal consumption.
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“Money moves before a crisis hits. People buy drugs before they are redistributed, and users take them before they overdose and require medical care,” the report says, adding that because blockchain records are updated instantly, they can serve as a highly correct “early warning system.”
The report also revealed that after the closure of Abacus Market in July 2025, activity quickly moved to additional platforms such as TorZon. Suppliers were found to routinely resupply across platforms and relocate in the event of disruptions.
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Fraud store volume dropped to $87.5 million
Fraud markets have shown a different trend. Onchain volume dropped from about $205 million to $87.5 million year-over-year after infrastructure outages, but activity has shifted toward wholesale operations, particularly Chinese-language networks running on Telegram that handle gigantic bulk sales of stolen payment data.
Chainalytic reported on Friday that crypto transactions linked to suspected human trafficking networks rose 85% in 2025, reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. The report found that the activity was largely linked to Southeast Asia and closely linked to fraud centers, online casinos and Chinese-speaking money laundering groups.
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