Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), is on track to test and potentially break the $1,500 support level in the coming days.

Key takeaways:

• Ethereum has entered the breakdown phase of the dominant bearish continuation pattern.

• The price of ETH may fall below $1,500 in early March as a result of founder selling.

The ETH bear pennant split is expected to be $1,475

ETH fell more than 5.60% to around $1,850 on Monday amid broader risk-off sentiment amid nervousness around tariffs.

The largest altcoin thus broke below the lower trendline of the prevailing bear pennant pattern, with rising volumes indicating trader confidence in a breakdown.

A bear pennant break usually ends when the price falls by as much as the height of the previous downtrend.

Applying the same rule to ETH charts would lead to a target drop to $1,475 by the end of February or early March, close to the $1,500 psychological support level.

Related: Ethereum Price: The classic chart pattern focuses on ETH below 2k. dollars

Bulls therefore need to reclaim the lower pennant trendline as support, followed by a further rally above the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA, green line) at $2,085, which could invalidate the bearish outlook.

Vitalik Buterin will likely sell more ETH soon

The ETH sale planned by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin did not support the bulls regain their footing in February.

It’s January 30, Buterin he said would withdraw and sell 16,384 ETH through its Kanro unit to fund ecosystem work, open source, and other long-term initiatives during the Ethereum Foundation’s “mild austerity” phase.

The Arkham Intelligence onchain tracker has been operational since the beginning of February tiled approximately 9,000 ETH were sold in batches, with the pace picking up again in the last 48 hours following the withdrawal of 3,500 ETH from Aave.

Vitalik Buterin is “selling ETH faster again,” onchain monitoring source Lookonchain said on Monday.

Ethereum price is down 18.55% so far in February, matching Buterin’s ETH distribution. The overhang may escalate if it liquidates the remaining ~7350 ETH.

History shows how founder-linked supply, including Ethereum Foundation treasury transfers, can reinforce bearish sentiment among traders.

For example May 2021 35,000 ETH transfers (around $125 million at the time) was preceded by a 50% drop in the price of ETH in a matter of weeks.

Then the foundation transferred another 20,000 ETH ($95 million) for Kraken on November 11, 2021, which in retrospect coincided with the price of Ether peaking near $4,700 before another cut.

Such conditions further escalate ETH’s chances of reaching its target below $1,500 in the coming days.