QCP Capital recently released a up-to-date market analysis offering view what could be in store for the price of Bitcoin (BTC) — and more importantly, where it might head next. These fresh insights focus specifically on the options market.
Market Anticipates Move: Bitcoin Options Analysis
QCP Capital’s latest report has identified an intriguing pattern in the Bitcoin options market, highlighting an augment in BTC-specific front-end volatility. This 5-point augment in near-term volatility indicates that traders are bracing for more price swings over the next few weeks.
Moreover, the increasing number of risk reversals to the upside indicates growing expectations among traders that prices are likely to continue to rise at a favourable pace, which will impact market sentiment.
According to QCP Capital, this combination of higher implied volatility and attractive risk reversals sets the stage for a potential price rally. In particular, QCP analysts noted:
Bitcoin price volatility rose 5 points this morning, with risk reversals favoring the upside, indicating the market is expecting potential upside volatility.
While Bitcoin is showing some signs of recovery as the market digests these fundamental analytical predictions, volatility remains on the way up. Especially amidst the gradual rebound, the asset still seems to be dragged by bears.
This morning, BTC hit $59,313, but at the time of writing, that value has already given up most of today’s gains and currently sits at $57,766, a few dollars lower than the 24-hour low of $57,127.
This continued volatility comes against the backdrop of a broader financial market that is constantly changing, with particular emphasis on the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). QCP noted:
Given the perceived reduction in supply, a milder CPI print could serve as a catalyst to get out of this situation. [current] range, especially bolstered by the upcoming launch of ETH spot ETF trading next week. We identify a compelling risk-reward opportunity on the upside through Digitals.
The attitude of long-term BTC holders
What’s more, despite all this, the fundamental confidence of long-term Bitcoin investors remains unshaken. According to the latest on-chain data data According to Glassnode, the fastest price corrections this cycle are not even prompting these investors to sell.
Glassnode reported that despite several market crashes, such as bitcoin falling to $53,500 last week, long-term holders of the cryptocurrency are more determined than ever and have not changed their aspirations for months.
The data suggests that only 36%, or possibly even less, of Bitcoin’s total capital was moved during this week’s sell-off – significantly less than previous major market caps, which saw commitments exceeding 60%.
This data indicates solid behavior that supports a well-established, fundamental market structure, even as BTC goes through one of the most tough post-halving cycles in history.
Featured image created with DALL-E, chart from TradingView
