Ethereum (ETH) fell on Tuesday, trading just above $2,080 as the broader cryptocurrency market weakened – a level well below the critical threshold identified by expert Ali Martinez as a trigger for a sustained macroeconomic bull run.
In an analysis shared on social media platform X, Martinez argued that reclaiming the realized price near $2,500 would mark the point at which the average holder returned to profits and signal the end of the market’s “cooling period,” opening the door to renewed, extended growth.
Technical intersections for Ethereum
Martinez framed the current price action in technical terms, suggestion Ethereum may form an ascending triangle. In this scenario, he draws the “line in the sand” at around $1,800 and notes that this number closely aligns with the 0.80 MVRV price range of around $1,880.
MVRV, or market value to realized value, compares the market price of an asset with the average price paid for the asset by holders; Martinez describes the 0.80 band as an “average pickup” indicator that has marked cycle bottoms in the past.
Once the threshold is reached, he said, Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market are often in a state of “extreme pain” – a phase where selling tends to parched up and long-term holders step in.
Outside of the ascending triangle scenario, Martinez took a more bearish alternative. If Ethereum price is actually capped within parallel channel rather than an ascending triangle, he warned that a deeper reset was possible.
In this case, I observe the outer limits of the channel at around $1,550 and $1,070. To support these observations, he pointed to URPD – UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a tool that maps the prices at which existing ETH has recently moved.
Martinez calls this distribution “market memory” because it identifies levels where immense concentrations of coins have been purchased and where defensive buying pressure is likely to occur.
$4,900 in the low term and $5,900 in the long term
According to Martinez’s URPD reading, bid prices below 0.80 are most crucial MVRV team they are around USD 1,584, USD 1,238 and USD 1,089. These price clusters, if tested, could generate significant support as holders who bought at these levels attempt to defend their positions.
Martinez believes accumulation will likely be in the “low thousands”; however, he assured that the “launch engine” for the next crucial growth stage will be Ethereum regaining its realized price of $2,500.
If Ethereum can break and hold above $2,500, Martinez says the technical i signals on the chain would indicate a “goal-rich environment.”
His analysis points to a short-term rally towards $4,900 – a level he linked to an ascending triangle structure – and ultimately towards the 2.40 MVRV band, near $5,900, which would represent a modern all-time high for Ethereum price.
Reaching these zones, according to the expert, would confirm that average holders have made profits again and that the market has definitely moved from accumulation to a broader speculative phase.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
