Market analysts say Ether (ETH) faces “downside risk” that could trigger another 20% downtrend towards $1,700, according to modern analysis.
Key takeaways:
- The growing supply of ETH on exchanges and the decreasing inflow of ETFs suggested a possible decline in the ETH price in the coming days.
- Ether’s rising wedge pattern predicted a potential drop of 22% to $1,725
The inflow of ETH to exchanges is growing
Ether has seen a 40% rebound from multi-month lows below $1,800 weakened by resistance at $2,400.
Analysts pointed out several reasons why Ether is unable to exceed $2,400including “significant” impacts on exchanges, according to CryptoQuant analyst BorisD.
The chart below shows a piercing boost in ETH reserves held on Binance to 3.84 million from 3.36 million between May 5 and May 9.
Analyst explained that as inflows accelerated, “price action did not show strong continued growth,” falling 7% to $2,260 from $2,390 over the same period.
“This suggests that liquidity was both absorbed and distributed within the range,” BorisD said, adding:
“The broader structure continues to indicate that downside risks dominate for now.”
ETH exchange reserve on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant
While other analysts see potential for modern gains in the coming days, “these moves may primarily serve distributional purposes rather than signal the start of a strong uptrend,” the analyst added.
I make the same observations, another PelinayPA analyst he said after any short-term rebound in ETH, “there will be high volatility and then a continuation of the broader downtrend,” adding:
“The large amount of ETH moving to exchanges continues to create significant resistance to upward price movements.”
This coincided with a surge in currency inflows as net ETH float across exchanges increased to 585,000 ETH on May 13, marking the largest boost since December 2025 when ETH was trading at $3,000. This preceded a 42% decline to $1,750 in February.
ETH: Change in net position on the exchange
Such inflows typically indicate distribution by huge holders who move tokens out of chilly storage or execute ETH investment products.
Meanwhile, demand for spot Ethereum ETFs continues to decline, with these investment products recording four consecutive days of outflows totaling $190 million. This indicates a decline in demand from US investors, which further hampers Ether.
ETH ETF spot flow chart. Source: SoSoValue
Ether’s rising wedge reaches $1,725
The daily chart shows ETH/USD confirming a breakdown of the rising wedge after the price broke the support provided by the lower trend line of the formation at $2,280.
A daily candle closing below this level will confirm the breakout, opening a path for Ether to fall towards the measured wedge target of $1,725, representing a 22% decline from the current price. This coincides with the previous macro low reached on February 6.
ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Rising wedges are usually bearish reversal patterns, and a breakout of Ether below the formation is “beginning to cause concern,” says a ShangoTrades analyst he said in X’s last post.
I’m moving away, fellow CryptoBullGod analyst he said ETH could fall to $1,280, which is the measured bear flag target as shown in the weekly chart below.
ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: CryptoBullGod
