Dutch users can still access crypto prediction markets despite a previous ban imposed on market leader Polymarket.
In February, the Dutch Gambling Authority (Ksa) banned Polymarket from operating without a gambling license. However, US-based Kalshi, cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid and investment giant Interactive Brokers continue to offer forecast markets to Dutch users, According to investigation by the Dutch financial newspaper FD.
Ksa warned that the Polymarket ban applies to similar platforms. “Websites similar to Polymarket are also subject to our supervision and may therefore be subject to sanctions by us,” the spokesman reportedly said.
The report said Kalshi is actively targeting the Dutch market, adding that users can bet on soccer matches in the Dutch Eredivisie and have previously had the opportunity to speculate on the Dutch elections. Hyperliquid, which operates as a decentralized blockchain platform, also recently expanded its prediction market offering to the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers views its products as financial contracts rather than gambling, citing supervision by Ireland’s central bank, according to the report. However, Ireland’s central bank told FD it had no knowledge of the arrangement and referred questions to the Irish Gambling Authority.
Related: The battle in the forecast market is getting closer to the Supreme Court
Cointelegraph reached out to Kalshi, Hyperliquid and Interactive Brokers for comment but did not receive a response via publication.
Forecast markets under global control
Prediction markets face global regulatory reckoning. Last month, Brazil decided to shut down 27 platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket. A growing number of European countries, including France, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland and Poland, also block or fine platforms operating without permission. Hungary and Portugal also came out specifically against Polymarket.
Market volume forecast. Source: Token terminal
In the United States, the picture is more divided. A fight has broken out between the feds and the states over who has the authority to regulate prediction markets. In recent weeks alone, the CFTC has filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, Novel York, and Wisconsin, arguing that these states have exceeded standards by attempting to regulate markets under federal jurisdiction.
Venture capital firm a16z supported the federal position, arguing that forcing exchanges to block users based on their state of residence directly violates the CFTC’s impartial access principles.
Related: Kalshi and Polymarket among 27 forecasting platforms banned in Brazil
Most traders lose money in prediction markets
April survey conducted by London Business School found that only 3% of forecast market participants make consistent profits, while almost 70% lose money.
There is also the issue of insider trading in prediction markets. It was found that anonymous traders correctly bet on the US attack on Iran and the attempted kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, which raised suspicions of having foreknowledge.
Warehouse: How to Fix Suspected Insider Trading on Polymarket and Kalshi
