According to TRM Labs, prediction markets overtook onchain gambling for the first time in the first quarter of 2026, recording $36.6 billion in volume compared to $14 billion for gambling.
In Wednesday’s report, the blockchain intelligence firm he said this change followed rapid expansion in both sectors. Onchain gambling reached $51 billion in 2025, while prediction markets grew to $54 billion, meaning both categories will reach comparable scale in 2026.
Still, onchain gambling remained at record levels. Quarterly gaming volume reached an all-time high of $15 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remained at $14 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Neither onchain gambling nor prediction markets have retreated along with the broader cryptocurrency markets. Volumes remained high during the 2025-2026 market correction.
Annual onchain betting volume. Source: TRM Laboratories
A TRM Labs spokesperson told Cointelegraph that gambling volume increased during the recent market downturn due to “volatile and growing activity from a loyal user base.”
“This does not in itself constitute a concentration risk as the gambling user base is quite large,” the spokesman said. “It shows how consistent user activity can protect an industry from market collapse and actually spur growth.”
Gambling and prediction markets face different threats
TRM said gaming platforms and prediction markets are increasingly connecting on a common stablecoin infrastructure, but the risks of financial crime associated with them remain distinct.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi operate as peer-to-peer markets for binary outcomes, while gambling platforms such as Stake, WINk and Rollbit operate more like classic casinos, with the platform setting the odds and maintaining the house edge.
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TRM said prediction markets are in high demand for insider trading, while gambling platforms are at greater risk of money laundering.
“Gaming services and prediction markets carry their own inherent risks of financial crime, and companies should calibrate controls accordingly,” a TRM Labs spokesperson told Cointelegraph.
Casual players drive growth along with the whales
TRM claims that between January 2022 and March 2026, over 2 million personal wallets came into contact with gambling platforms.
The company divided these users into five behavioral groups. Dabblers made five or fewer trades and disappeared within a month, while Casual Bettors averaged 18 trades over eight busy days. “Event Chasers” returned during major sporting events, while “Daily Grinders” played on at least 30% of the days as part of their busy employment. “High Rollers,” the highest-value group, average $13,558 per bet and $378,000 in lifetime gambling.
The company found that gaming volume continues to be largely concentrated among high-value users, with High Roller players representing 6.3% of personal gambling wallets, but as of 2022, they account for 91.8% of personal wallet gambling volume.
Still, TRM found that the fastest-growing user categories are not just high-stakes players. Casual Bettors’ monthly betting volume increased from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million in March 2026, while Daily Grinders volume increased 12x over the same period.
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