Bitcoin price started the year with robust momentum, which was further boosted by the launch of spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds) in January. The leading cryptocurrency benefited from its introduction to a novel group of investors, setting a novel all-time high of $73,737 in mid-March.

However, Bitcoin has slowed down in the past few months, and many investors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts are wondering if the bull run is over. The latest comment comes from a blockchain firm that has provided something of a timeline for the flagship cryptocurrency’s bull run.

Bitcoin price down 12% from halving price

In a novel report on the X platform, crypto intelligence firm IntoTheBlock common insight into Bitcoin’s behavior during the halving year and how it affects the bull cycle procession. The fourth halving event, which took place in April, saw miner rewards drop from 12.5 to 6.25.

While the Bitcoin halving is theoretically a bullish event, the months following the event have not been particularly positive for the leading cryptocurrency. According to data from IntoTheBlock, BTC is down 12% from its halving value of $63,900.

While the current market leadership position is slightly better than pre-halving predictions, it is still a source of concern for many investors. However, BTC’s disappointing post-halving performance may not be the end of it, as the price still seems far from the cycle peak.

Source: IntoTheBlock/X

IntoTheBlock noted in its report that historically, the average time between a Bitcoin halving and the next peak is 480 days. This would put the peak of the cycle somewhere around the summer of 2025.

Bitcoin price has been in a consolidation mode over the past two quarters, hovering between $55,000 and $69,000. A sustained breakout above $70,000 could signal a resumption of the bullish cycle.

When will the growth cycle resume?

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Newborn Ju has aired similar comment on the current state of Bitcoin’s growth cycle. According to the cryptocurrency’s founder, BTC is only in the middle of a growth cycle and “the retail bubble hasn’t burst yet.” For context, a retail bubble refers to a phase where there is a significant influx of retail investors into a market.

It is worth noting that BTC demand in some markets, particularly the United States, currently appears to be weakening. This trend is highlighted by the sinking dominance of Coinbase spot trading volume, which has returned to pre-ETF spot levels. Newborn Ju noted that BTC demand in the US needs to rebound if the bull cycle is to resume.

CryptoQuant CEO added:

I expect it in the fourth quarter, but I could be wrong.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $54,000, up just 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the market leader is down more than 8.5% in the past week, according to CoinGecko data.

The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView