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Bitcoin may be stuck in a downtrend, but fundamental analysis suggests it is in a good position. According to a recent analysis by crypto analyst Kaleo, Bitcoin is currently showing healthier momentum than it did during the previous halving cycle. This intriguing prospect for Bitcoin comes amid the cryptocurrency’s struggles to stay above $54,000 AND break through $57,000.
Bitcoin is in a healthier place
Kaleo’s Bitcoin analysis, published on social media platform X, compared the current BTC price performance since the recently concluded April 2024 halving to the performance after the previous halving in May 2020. It has been 141 days since the last halving, but BTC price has still not reached the results expected by many.
The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin is currently trading 19% below its all-time high of $69,434 reached during the last market cycle. While some may interpret this impoverished performance as a sign of an extended downtrend, Kaleo pointed out that Bitcoin is still holding up well. This is because at the same time, following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin was already 46% below its 2018 peak. This historical context confirms BTC’s stronger position today, despite its current struggles to break above.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $56,616. The lack of sustained bullish momentum since August has caused several cryptocurrency analysts to scale back their once-optimistic forecasts. Now, a number of negative and bearish forecasts considering the current market situation.
However, Kaleo reminds us of a sentiment similar to that which dominated the market shortly after the halving in 2020. Back then, the negative outlook prevailed. Many market participants expressed doubts and negative predictions about the future of BTC. However, Bitcoin bulls ultimately defied these predictions, driving the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization above $1 trillion for the first time. This also caused a significant boost in the value of many altcoins and the emergence of recent sectors such as NFTs.
What if I told you that Bitcoin is in better shape now than it was at the same point after the halving in the last cycle?
This is currently down about 19% from the peak of the last cycle (141 days after halving).
2020 saw a decline of around 46% compared to the best 141 days in 2018 after the halving.… photo:twitter.com/tZ0mFey15I
— KALEO (@CryptoKaleo) September 9, 2024
What’s next for BTC?
Kaleo’s analysis suggests that despite the current pessimism, history may repeat itself and Bitcoin may once again rise above market expectationsIn addition, the analyst suggests that the cryptocurrency ecosystem is now in a better place to support stronger price growth. For example, institutional investors can now effectively invest in BTC via the Spot Bitcoin ETF. Regulatory clarity surrounding the cryptocurrency industry has also improved significantly over the past four years.
Another analyst, Rekt Capital, previous halvings investigated cycles and proposed that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin’s next surge could come in October, which has historically been a mighty month for Bitcoin. History also shows that the market top could occur between 518 and 546 days after the April halving.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
