Analysts are closely watching the upcoming US presidential elections, especially in terms of their possible impact Bitcoin. Bernstein’s recent analysis highlights the significant divergence in Bitcoin’s prospects depending on the election victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Their estimates indicate that if Trump is victorious, Bitcoin’s price could surge to the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of 2024. A Harris victory could push Bitcoin to the $40,000 range due to expected regulatory hurdles.
Bernstein analysts said short-term Bitcoin price fluctuations are closely linked to the US election results. If Trump wins the US election next month, Bitcoin’s price is expected to hit a modern high of $80,000 to $90,000. If Harris wins, Bitcoin could return to…
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Bernstein analysts assess Trump’s victory
Analysts at Bernstein, including Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia, say a Trump presidency would be “increasingly beneficial” to the Bitcoin industry. Trump’s conversion to digital assets has made him a pro-crypto candidate who favors an end to strict regulations and the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve. This change led many investors to think that less stringent regulations would apply if he was elected.
Source: Polymarket
Harris, on the other hand, has taken a more cautious stance on cryptocurrencies. While she has expressed support for business innovation, her policies may not provide the same level of incentives as Trump’s. Bernstein warns that under Harris’ leadership, Bitcoin could experience significant downward pressure, which could result in prices near $40,000.
Broader market implications
Such predictions, however, have much broader implications beyond Bitcoin. Analysts from Standard Chartered believe that if Trump wins this time Bitcoin could reach $125,000; if Harris takes the top job, Bitcoin could reach a price of around $75,000.
Bernstein believes that “win or lose,” Bitcoin is likely to be on a fairly positive path given the macro forces of low interest rates and high debt. Other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana are also likely to remain stable after the election, Bernstein said, indicating that these assets will not take final trajectories until there is clarity on appointments to regulatory offices in the modern administration.
About the election results and market sentiment
As the election date approaches, market sentiment appears to be shifting in Trump’s favor. Currently on prediction markets Polymarket favors Trump with a nearly 9% lead over Harris. According to analysts, this means that as long as the prospects for Trump’s victory improve, his chances will have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin.
The upcoming election is a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bernstein’s analysis highlights possible market volatility resulting from political outcomes.
As Trump promotes a more favorable regulatory framework and Harris takes a cautious approach, investors are bracing for significant swings in bitcoin valuations as November approaches. Regardless of the winner, analysts and investors alike agree that the political environment will have a significant impact on the future of digital assets in the United States.
Featured image from Fox Business, chart from TradingView
