As the United States approaches the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, the Bitcoin market is bracing for significant volatility. In the run-up to the election, Bitcoin’s price surged to a high of $73,620 on Tuesday, likely reflecting investor optimism about former President Donald Trump’s potential victory. However, by Friday, the BTC price had corrected, falling to $68,830 amid a more cautious sentiment related to fear of the upcoming elections.

How to Trade Bitcoin During the US Elections

Alex Krüger, Argentinian economist and renowned cryptocurrency analyst, common his strategic framework for trading Bitcoin during the US election period via account Harris could cause Bitcoin to stabilize around $65,000 with a 45% probability. He stressed that time is of the essence: “Expect a move quickly if Trump wins. Markets rarely wait for laggards in binary events, which are largely non-front rounds.

Krüger also noted that the current price of Bitcoin, which he believes will be in the range of 65,000-68,000 before election night. dollars, “exceeded” the level of probability of Trump’s victory. He noted the uncertainty surrounding the election results, depending primarily on vote counting in Pennsylvania, which could delay the announcement of a clear winner.

“It depends largely on the state of Pennsylvania whether it is skewed or not. This could be as early as Tuesday evening EST or a few days later if numbers are very tight. The sooner we get clarity, the easier it will be,” Krüger said.

In terms of market sentiment, Krüger expressed bullishness on stocks regardless of the election results, unless there is an unexpected “blue push” in which Democrats secure both the presidency and a majority in Congress. He explained that “stocks are pulling Bitcoin.”

In his personal investing strategy, Krüger revealed that he is long in Bitcoin and Nvidia and plans to go long in Solana (SOL) if Trump wins. Krüger is therefore likely to bet on immediate approval of the Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States.

Krüger’s analysis suggests that the market partially priced in Trump’s victory, anticipating that the Trump administration could boost the price of Bitcoin. “Markets have partially priced in Trump’s victory. We (the market collectively) expect Trump to boost cryptocurrency prices due to greater regulatory transparency and the implementation of pro-crypto policies,” the analyst wrote.

Additionally, Trump’s focus on increased government spending is expected to spur near-term economic growth, positively impacting stocks – a sector closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance.

Conversely, a Harris victory would likely mean a continuation of existing policies, barring a significant Democratic shift. Krüger concluded: “Based on betting markets and various election prediction models, Trump’s probability is between 50% and 63%. So it’s a “safe” assumption that the GOP victory is not fully priced in. This contentious arrangement is common in elections. Therefore, I do not expect to “sell news”.

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $70,402.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com