Bitcoin price has seen five consecutive red daily candles since it stopped just shy of an all-time high of $73,620 last Tuesday. As a result, the BTC price dropped by approximately 7%. This decline is clearly observable on the weekly chart, which shows the main bearish weekly candle – the tombstone doji.

Certified Market Technician (CMT) Aksel Kibar excellent via X, “BTCUSD weekly candle may look similar to GOLD” and explained that this indicates a trend reversal. But he added: “As a single candle it cannot be relied upon. It is best to combine it with a faint candle following it as confirmation of a trend reversal. […] The market narrative is that the bulls are trying to break out to fresh highs during the session, but the bears are pushing the price action near the open before the close of the session.

Bitcoin Will Hit $75,000 by the End of November?

Still, Singapore-based cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital remains bullish on its newest investor notehighlighting significant changes in both the political forecasting and BTC derivatives markets.

According to QCP Capital, odds on decentralized forecasting marketplace Polymarket “came close to actual poll estimates,” with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump “in a tight race.” While Polymarket still favors Trump at 55%, that’s down from 66% a week ago, indicating a narrowing margin that’s more in line with mainstream polling data.

The company also noted the cautious mood in the cryptocurrency market. The “sideways price action over the weekend” and the decline in leveraged perpetual futures positioning – from $30 billion to $26 billion on exchanges – suggest investors are taking a “wait and see” approach. This decline may be due to uncertainty related to macroeconomic factors or the upcoming elections.

Despite the current market volatility, QCP Capital sees potential for a significant upward movement in the Bitcoin price. The company questioned whether this was a “calm before a breakout from a multi-month range and a push towards all-time highs.” Confirming this prospect, QCP has seen an boost in top-of-the-page positioning with significant purchases of $75,000 worth of November-end call options since last Friday. This boost in call options at this strike price suggests that investors are preparing for a significant rally by the end of November.

Additionally, the company emphasized increased activity in the field of options related to the election date. “Election date options positions are also rising,” QCP noted, with implied volatility topping 87% on Friday, even as realized volatility remains at 40%. Increased implied volatility indicates that options traders expect prices to fluctuate significantly during the election period.

Looking ahead, QCP Capital expects Bitcoin’s spot price to remain range-bound until U.S. election results provide more clarity. The company said it “expects the spot to remain in this range until we have more clarity on the election results this week,” adding that “a Trump victory will likely trigger a knee-jerk reaction, and vice versa if Kamala wins.” “

At the time of publication, the price of BTC was $68,852.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com