Dogecoin price is currently showing a very bearish pattern on the 4-hour chart, signaling potential caution for investors. After forming a bullish falling wedge between November 12 and November 19, the expected breakout was short-lived and failed to meet bullish expectations.

On November 19, Dogecoin broke out of the pattern, sparking initial optimism among traders. However, cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) did predicted the breakout would be feeble, and subsequent price movements confirmed his prediction.

What direction is the Dogecoin price heading?

Memecoin faced edged rejection at a significant resistance level, specifically the 0.786 Fibonacci macro retracement level. Kevin emphasized that as long as this level isn’t “crossed cleanly and violently, it’s nothing to get too crazy about.” He also pointed out that Bitcoin (BTC) is at major resistance, suggesting that Dogecoin’s next significant move will likely coincide with Bitcoin breaking above the $100,000 mark. “Until then, everything will be fine,” he noted.

Urging traders to cold their enthusiasm, Kevin stated: “Please control your excitement because there is nothing to get excited about in the short term. BTC is still at major resistance, as is Dogecoin. Nothing has broken yet.” He emphasized the importance of Bitcoin’s movements, adding: “At this time, it is more important to provide technical analysis of BTC than of Dogecoin. DOGE is simply trading sideways, waiting for Bitcoin to make a decision to go up or down. Where Bitcoin goes, Doge will go in the short term.”

Analyzing the 4-hour chart, Kevin identified a “nasty triple top” at the macro Fibonacci level of 0.786 for Dogecoin – a bearish signal that could indicate upcoming downward pressure. He warned that if there is a correction to $0.30, as he previously suggested, “a lot of blind Permian bulls will have some explaining to do.”

A triple top is a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis that signifies a potential transition from an uptrend to a downtrend. This occurs when price reaches the same resistance level three times, each time retreating after a failed breakout. Dogecoin’s repeated inability to break above the 0.786 Fib at $0.41 suggests weakening upside momentum in the miniature term.

Kevin emphasized that Dogecoin hasn’t really broken out yet: “Until it breaks the 0.786 Fib macro at $0.41, it’s just trading sideways.” Looking ahead, he outlined a bullish scenario contingent on breaking this key resistance level. “If Dogecoin forcibly breaks the 0.786 Fib macro, then $0.80 to $0.85 will be on the table. Lots of work though. We need BTC to push higher,” he explained.

Kevin has been predicting a deeper correction of Dogecoin for several days. The triple top formation and rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci level confirm his main hypothesis. He outlined his initial price target: “The level we will want to maintain for Dogecoin is a range of $0.30 to $0.26, which is the gold pocket retracement levels. This is a 30-40% correction from the local peak, which is an ideal size correction in a bull market.

Focusing on the long term, Kevin emphasized the importance of the upcoming monthly candle close. “Dogecoin’s next huge goal is to close its monthly candle above $0.335 in 11 days. This would mark DOGE’s highest monthly candle close ever and I will be watching this closely,” he said.

At the time of publication, DOGE was trading at $0.39.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com