In a technical analysis shared by cryptocurrency analyst Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) on X, the analyst predicts that XRP will potentially reach $15 in this bull market, depending on how historical price movement patterns match. The analysis delves into past XRP market cycles, using percentage extrapolations and chart pattern assessments to forecast future price trajectories.

Is an XRP price of $15 realistic?

Bobby A analysis compares XRP’s performance during the 2017 market cycle with its current trajectory in 2024. Since breaking out of the high range in 2017, marked by the horizontal black dashed line on the chart, XRP has seen an initial appreciation of 629%.

For comparison, this asset has appreciated by approximately 331% since the breakout from the high in 2024. Next, from the December 2014 high to the May 2017 high – approaching the Fibonacci extension at 4.236 – XRP saw a staggering 1,330% boost.

Using the rule of halving percentage point increases as seen during the initial surge in 2017, Bobby A posits that another XRP push could result in a 665% boost. These calculations position XRP at around $15.00 near the Fibonacci extension level of 4.236.

“XRP appears to be cutting its percentage point gains in half compared to the 2017 market cycle. If XRP cuts its next push in half from a percentage point growth perspective, as it did with its first push, the asset’s price will be around ~$15.00 near the extension at 4.236, after a possible 665% upside,” explains Bobby A.

It is worth noting that the analyst also notices a developing bull flag formation – a continuation pattern that usually signals the potential for further upward movement. This bull flag targets the upper boundary of the XRP macro parallel channel, estimated at the $10.50 price level. “The current bull flag for this stock is towards the top of the parallel macro channel near $10.50,” notes Bobby A.

Another analyst, bassii (@cryptobassii), presented a contrasting point of view focused on fractal analysis. Bassii posits that the ongoing streak could be capped by 42%, predicting that the XRP price will approach $9 before seeing a significant decline.

He talks in detail about fractal patterns, stating: “It appears that this boost has been reduced to 42%, which would mean we would get closer to $9 and then it would be a huge drop. But you leave out the last part of the 2017 result, IF (a huge if) this happens and we keep the same percentage, after months of accumulation we will end up with about $30.

Or even $35?

Bassii referred to the previous one analysis about himself, where he highlighted the similarities between the 2024 run and the 2017 run. It is worth noting that both periods saw five weeks of consecutive green candles, although of different sizes – around 500% in 2024 compared to 1,200% in 2017.

He points out: “2017: 5 weeks of green candles at ~1200%^ followed by 3 weeks of red candles at a 63% decline.” 2024: Additionally, 5 weeks of green candles with ~500% growth (~1/2 of 2017 values), followed by… (so far) 1 week of red candles by how much? You guessed it…30% down.” The subsequent correction phases also mirror each other, with XRP seeing a 30% decline in 2024 compared to a 63% decline in 2017, with each being roughly halved.

From this, Bassii outlines potential future moves based on historical patterns, suggesting that if XRP continues to follow these fractal patterns without significant breakdowns, it could accumulate for several months and potentially rise to $30 by September 2025.

Responding to Bassia’s analysis, Bobby A expresses cautious optimism, stating: “Yes, but I’m not sure there will be a final push. I’m much more confident in the next one.” Bassii complements this by emphasizing the importance of sticking to fractal patterns and developing charts in real time, adding: “I think it will depend on how closely we follow fractals and what the chart tells us in the period ahead. This is being followed very closely so far. The weekly candles for the last 8 weeks have followed beat by strike. I’m not a moon boy, I know how crazy $30-35 sounds. But if we continue to follow the course of 2017.”

At press time, XRP was trading at $2.1581.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com