Ether is currently trading above $2,100 at the start of the modern month, but one analyst believes the next major directional move for these assets is based on a single price level: one that, if broken it would nullify the years macro analysis and cause prices to crash to $900.
Count, which held for a year
According to to the analyst known as The Penguin, Ethereum’s current price behavior fits into a broader Elliott Wave structure that has been developing for years. The analysis defines the entire Ethereum price history since 2016 as an unfolding macro sequence: a completed Wave 1 cycle that peaked, followed by an extended wave 2 correction that flattens out. According to the analyst, this structure is time-consuming, unstable and designed to cause frustration.
Since Ethereum’s 2021 peak, Ethereum’s price has largely moved sideways and downwards while repeatedly teasing a recovery that has fizzled out. The most notable example of this recovery was in August 2025, when Ethereum surged to modern all-time highs. However, this ultimately resulted in a price reversal that saw Ethereum fall below $2,000 again.
The chart details a flat trading sequence, mapping legs W,
The $1,382 line that changes everything
As shown in the chart above, Ethereum price has spent the period since its peak in 2021 trade under a a well-defined horizontal resistance zone between $4,500 and $4,900, with numerous gains failing to break through. On the other hand, the dimples were less uniform and formed a more irregular pattern instead of a pristine horizontal base.
However, one level stands out in this structure, which is the low of $1,382 recorded in April 2025. In the context of this analysis, this point is labeled Wave X and serves as the lower invalidation level of the time frame. This is an vital price level that will determine whether the price structure continues to fall below the four-digit level.
As long as Ethereum remains above it, the Wave 2 scenario will remain in place and Ethereum’s price may continue to enter a modern upward impulse cycle. The target price in this case is up to $8,400.
However, a split below $1,382 would invalidate the entire wave count. ETH will be needed shed about a third its value to reach this level, but given the 29% decline in Q1 2026 and the February 6 low of $1,743, it is not out of reach under constant sales pressure.
If this invalidation level fails, the analyst forecast points to a downside break below $900, and Fibonacci extensions on the chart point to lows in the $800 to $500 range.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
