Bitcoin’s price performance in 2024 is one for the history books, with the most critical cryptocurrency crossing the $100,000 mark for the first time in history. However, reaching this milestone opened the door to another conversation – when will the market peak?
As a result, several predictions for Bitcoin’s highest price have emerged from the cryptocurrency crowd over the past few weeks. The latest observations on the chain suggest that the market may not have peaked yet, or may not be close to it yet.
The realized profit rate is relatively low compared to previous cycles
In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst nicknamed CryptoOnChain explained how whale behavior and movements could aid determine the top of the Bitcoin market. The relevant metric here is the realized profit ratio, which measures the ratio at which a cohort of investors exits the market.
The “realized profit ratio” indicator calculates the proportion of coins sold for a profit relative to the total transaction volume. A high value of this indicator signals that the market is approaching a peak and participants are starting to dispose of their assets in order to make a profit.
On the other hand, the low realized profit ratio shows that fewer market participants are selling their bags for profit. This often signals continued investor confidence and faith in the cryptocurrency’s price growth.
According to CryptoOnChain, the realized profit rate for the different cohorts of Bitcoin whales (holding 10 to 100, 100 to 1000 and 1000 to 10,000 BTC) is much lower compared to recent cycles. As you can see in the chart below, it appears that the whales have not yet started taking profits.
Source: CryptoQuant
This suggests that Bitcoin whales, which are influential market players, believe that the most critical cryptocurrency has not yet reached its peak in the cycle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at just under $102,000, which does not reflect any significant changes over the past 24 hours.
40,000 BTC transferred from centralized exchanges: CryptoQuant
Other data appears to support the view that market participants now expect higher returns. An outstanding cryptocurrency expert, Ali Martinez, took up the X platform participation that significant amounts of Bitcoin have flowed from centralized exchanges over the past few days.
Source: Ali_charts/X
Over 40,000 BTC (worth approximately $3.92 billion) was sent from exchanges last week. This shift of assets into non-custodial portfolios indicates growing confidence among investors who are focused on long-term promises rather than quick short-term gains.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
