Ethereum reclaimed the $3,150 level after a volatile Sunday session that left traders divided on what comes next. Some analysts warn that ETH’s recent rebound is nothing more than a short-lived pause before the downtrend resumes, while others see signs of a potential bullish reversal at current levels.
Fresh data from Binance shows that Ethereum is currently entering a fine phase. Price momentum has moderated noticeably, but the number of open trades remains relatively high despite the drop from the $3,900 region. This disconnect highlights a fundamental change in the behavior of the futures market: investors are holding positions but not aggressively increasing them.
The 30-day open interest Z-Score is currently 0.50, which indicates that OI is slightly above its 30-day average – well within normal volatility bands. Unlike previous corrections where open interest increased during intense selling, the current reading does not suggest either extreme leverage build-up or panic closing.
This unusual combination – waning momentum coupled with stable open interest – highlights a market in transition. Whether Ethereum returns to its downtrend or begins to recover will depend on how quickly momentum returns in the spot and futures markets in the coming days.
The stability of open interest signals a change in market position
By Arab Chain report on CryptoQuant, $6.61 billion in Ethereum open interest highlights that investors are still holding on to a significant portion of their positions despite the edged drop from $3,900 to below $3,200. This discrepancy – falling price but constant OI – is characteristic of market repositioning phases in which investors reduce activity without completely exiting the market.
Supporting indicators support this view with OI avg30 at $6.44 billion and OI std30 at $329 million, indicating that current swings remain within normal volatility ranges. There are no signs of aggressive position building or liquidation pressure.
With a Z-Score of 0.50, the moderate raise in open interest does not suggest overwhelming bearish leverage. Instead, it shows that investors continue to interact with the market and selectively build novel positions as prices decline. This level of participation is crucial: it signals that the derivatives market is lively but not overheated.
The weakening of Ethereum prices, caused by weakening momentum after failing to maintain previous highs, leaves the market at a turning point. If gigantic investors are mostly tiny traders, stable OI could support continued downward pressure. However, if long positions dominate, the same stability may constitute the basis for a rebound when momentum returns.
Testing momentum as bulls try to regain control
Ethereum is trying to stabilize above the $3,150-$3,160 zone after a volatile multi-week decline. The chart shows ETH rebounding from the local low near $2,750, creating a short-term bullish structure. However, the dynamics remain feeble. The 50-day SMA continues to decline and is well above current price action, reinforcing the broader downtrend. Until ETH breaks and closes above this moving average, attempts to rally will likely encounter resistance.
The 100-day SMA is also falling, coinciding with the $3,350-$3,400 area – an area that could represent the next major floor for any bullish continuation. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA remains unchanged but sits slightly above the price, creating an additional barrier around $3,250-$3,300. This cluster of resistance levels confirms that Ethereum, despite its recent rebound, is still operating within a corrective structure.
Volume has declined significantly compared to the sturdy sell-side surges seen in November. This suggests that the rebound may be driven more by withering sales pressure than by sturdy box office demand. If volume remains faint, ETH may struggle to gain enough momentum to make a sustained recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
