Travis Kling, founder and Chief Investment Officer of Ikigai Asset Management, proposes a direct link between the US presidential election results and the price of bitcoin. WX Kling delves into the political dynamics and their perceived implications for cryptocurrency markets, with a particular focus on Donald Trump’s potential re-election.

Why September 10th Could Be Crucial for Bitcoin

Blade analysis depends on a few key political events and their impact on betting markets, which he believes reflect broader economic expectations. “NFA. I’m often wrong. Bitcoin probably traded in correlation to a Trump victory. And that makes sense to me. BTC/crypto will be MUCH better under a Trump administration,” Kling said.

He highlighted the perceived shortcomings of the Democratic National Convention and the expected endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as key moments that could drive Bitcoin’s price. “The DNC doesn’t seem to be going particularly well. RFK is expected to endorse Trump on Friday. These factors are showing up in the Polymarket, and if RFK goes for Trump, I think Poly will expand even more,” Kling noted. He predicts these events will peak on September 10.

That’s when former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will have their first debate in Philadelphia. “IMO, Trump will lose. If he shows up for Kamala like he did for Biden, the polls/Poly should expand even more.”

Kling expects Bitcoin to rise to $72,000. “Given that BTC is trading with Trump, it would make sense to me that all of this would push BTC back to the top of that 6-month range,” Kling speculated.

He cautioned against being too sanguine, though. Kling isn’t confident that BTC price can break out of the trading range established in mid-March “before the election, unless the polls/Poly REALLY widen in Trump’s favor. Love it or hate it, this election is very important to us, and short-term price action is just one aspect of it.”

Interestingly, not everyone shares Kling’s opinion. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, offered a different perspective. Sigel stated, “Bitcoin is not currently trading at Trump’s rates, although I expect that to change.

FalconX, a well-known cryptocurrency broker, recently conducted an analysis that examined the correlation between bitcoin prices and Trump’s election chances on Polymarket, a political betting platform. From June 1 to August 15, their findings did not show a clear correlation, highlighting that other factors may have had a greater impact on bitcoin’s price. These factors included the German government’s sell-off of 50,000 BTC and liquidations by former Mt. Gox clients.

Undoubtedly, the Trump-Kennedy Jr. coalition would be extremely bullish on Bitcoin. While this increases Trump’s chances of winning the US election, another sturdy Bitcoin supporter would join Trump’s campaign. Kennedy Jr., like Trump, has advocated for significant government involvement in Bitcoin, proposing that the Treasury Department buy 550 Bitcoins per day until it accumulates 4 million BTC in reserves.

At the time of going to press, the BTC price was $61,067.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com