A veteran cryptographic analyst, Bob Lukas, reduced the Bitcoin exhibition, warning the observers that although the bull cycle remains intact, the probability that Bitcoin has already reached the highest level in this four -year cycle. In the update published On April 8, Lookas described in detail the justification for the sale of one third of its model wallet for 79,500 USD, citing both technical deterioration and deteriorating macroeconomic background.

“I still think that we have the opportunity to push later during the year, and even at the beginning of next year to a height in a four-year cycle,” Lookas said. He emphasized, however, that the last price actions and structural failures on the charts required a more careful approach. “I don’t call it to be the best in the cycle,” he explained, “but I say that the probability that it will be the best … from such low risk to something that may be more third – you know, 33% chance.”

Bitcoin bull in question

Changing the portfolio, which reduces the Bitcoins allocation of the model to 27 BTC with the rest of the cash, is not a call to the upcoming fall, but protection against the growing risk of decline. Lookas emphasized that his decision was not reactive or impulsive, but rather adapted to a long -term strategy based on the cyclical structure of Bitcoin price history. He appealed to his February film, in which he warned that if the next weekly cycle did not keep his support and did not pull out the last low, he would signal deeper problems. “In the third year of the bull market you do not want to see significant low, such as the one we had in February … and then to be taken. This does not happen often.”

Lookas pointed to a series of violations of the trend line and critical support breaks on weekly and monthly charts. Considering that technical breaks are not, in insulation, reliable predictors of bicycle peaks, he argued that they were increasing the weight to work, that the market could go to the fall of the four -year cycle phase. “We are now … 29 months after the cycle,” he said, “So it’s deep enough when I just have to treat it a little more seriously.”

Although the analyst remains stubborn long-term-a lot that pronounces powerful price results, ETF influence and institutional adoption-macroeconomic winds on the head can accelerate the short-term minus. “A serious macro problem with tariffs, trade and economy takes place here,” noted Lookas. “For decades, we have not seen such influence or interference on global trade … it potentially … become a full -length global recession.”

In such a scenario, the idea that Bitcoin can fully separate from risk assets remains, according to Lookas, unrealistic. “Because ETF is so new, and Saylor and others – institutional or traditional involvement in Bitcoin – allows me to believe that full separation … is probably unreal.”

The analyst presented a possible bear scenario in which Bitcoin will fall compared to USD 52,000 – about 50% withdrawal from January peaks. Emphasizing that this is not a forecast, but an emergency, Lukas said that such a move can be a powerful possibility of entering again. “If Bitcoin would fall to three months by accident to say that the level of $ 54,000, I would think that at this moment 50% withdrawal is sufficient … where I would like to transfer the risk.”

He added that every significant rally, and then a lower low level, will confirm the four -year cycle. “Big movement, and then later movement … This is almost a kind of last nail in the casket.”

Despite this, Lookas did not rule out higher ups this year. He introduced the possibility of an unusual “super-right cycle”, in which Bitcoins reach the highest peaks outside the standard window of the month 35-maybe about 41 or 42 months-a edged, but tiny correction, and then continuation to the next four-year cycle. This more speculative scenario would include a convoluted double or even triple pump structure, reflecting the 2013 and 2021 cycle patterns.

For now, the portfolio of the model remains two -thirds invested in Bitcoin, and Loukas repeated that he would prefer a stubborn result even at the expense of reduced exposure. “I would prefer to drive two -thirds of $ 150,000, $ 200,000, and even more than I would say:” Well, Bitcoin returned to $ 48,000 or lower. “

Ultimately, Lookas formulated this movement not as a bear capitulation, but as cautious risk management. “Basically, I am an allocator of risk and capital … and when you delve into the cycle, the higher the risk/prize of course changes.”

During the BTC press it traded at 77,743 USD.

A distinguished painting created from Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com