Renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger assumes that Bitcoin is “highly likely” to be in a supercycle. Krüger presented his own perspective through an X, highlighting the distinct trajectory that Bitcoin is currently on compared to previous market cycles.

A Bitcoin supercycle is a theoretical phase in which the price of Bitcoin is expected to boost dramatically, outperforming customary boom and bust cycles. This concept envisions an extended period of growth driven by increased mainstream adoption, leading to a much stronger and more sustained upward trajectory than the typical four-year halving cycle that Bitcoin has historically followed.

Is Bitcoin in a supercycle?

Regarding President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-Bitcoin turn and his plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Krüger noted: “Do yourself a favor and stop comparing this cycle to previous cycles. Bitcoin is likely in a supercycle. The cryptocurrency industry has just experienced the most dramatic change in history, a fundamental 180-degree turn,” the analyst said.

Krüger also addressed the rapid evolution of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency sector, noting that in a matter of weeks it had transformed “from a barely legal pariah hated by the state to one of the leading state-backed industries” – a change he describes as “so extreme, it’s difficult find something comparable nowadays.”

Referring to historical financial changes, Krüger emphasized the transformative impact of the 1970s on gold. “Maybe 1970s gold is one of them. The 1970s were a breakthrough decade for gold. “Nixon’s end of the gold standard in 1971 and the liquidation of Bretton Woods caused the price of gold to skyrocket from $35 an ounce to $850 in 1981.” – he explained.

Krüger also addressed the timing of Bitcoin’s potential peak, suggesting that based on his previous analysis, it is reasonable to expect a major local peak around March. “This would be highly dependent on the slope of the hill, funding rates and the wider economy. However, a huge local peak should not be identified with the beginning of a bear market,” he noted.

Recognizing the possibility of a bear market, he emphasized that “there are no conditions for this yet. It is also too early to expect a peak. Bitcoin fever always lasts for many months. It’s only been 33 days since Trump launched the Kraken.

Emphasizing the uncertain nature of market sentiment, Krüger added a caution: “When you all finally believe what I just wrote, it will be [be] peak.” In this statement, Krüger highlights the psychological factors that often influence market dynamics, in particular the collective belief in market peaks.

User X, Paradox Parrot (@Paradoxparrot), commented on Krüger’s claim, stating: “I agree. But saying “this time is different” is a good way to go back both ways. In response, Krüger confirmed the cyclical skepticism towards altcoins, assuring: “Sure. Alts cover most of the route in both directions. It’s the nature of the beast. Remember that this time has already been proven otherwise on many levels. I’ve been anticipating this and writing about it in detail here since mid-2023. By the way, a round trip for 2 reasons. A) lack of fundamentally driven demand. And more importantly B) lack of liquidity (which is why they grow in such a vertical way).”

Despite Krüger’s bullish forecasts, not all experts agree with the supercycle hypothesis. Chris Burnsike, partner at Placeholder VC, offered contrasting take on X on December 7: “Save this for later: a supercycle is never real – everything is cyclical, although cycles may vary. […] When you buy a supercycle, you never sell and you never go back and forth. Ask anyone who has never sold in 2021.”

At the time of publication, the BTC price was $98,287.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com