At the beginning of the week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was pressure on the part of the sellers, falling from USD 84,500 on March 17, to USD 81,300 at the time of writing. This move down was most likely a sale related to the two -day meeting of the Federal Open Committee (FOMC), which will take place on March 18–19.

Meetings of the Federal Committee of the Open Market (FOMC) tend to act as a market reset. Every time Fomc meets to consider American monetary policy, Crypto Markets Brace in order to influence.

Historically, traders reduce the risk and reduce the lever before the announcement, and after the meeting and press conference of the chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the markets can be equally reactive.

The press message of the current FOMC meeting scheduled for Wednesday, March 19, at 14:30 ET, and can cause grave movements on the Bitcoin market. The analysis of market behaviors leading to its release can give tips on the next Bitcoin movement.

For commerce FOMC means variability

Traders strictly monitor FOMC minutes in terms of any changes in the FED attitude regarding inflation and interest rates.

After the announcement of the FOMC, the price of Bitcoins tends to respond violently. From the beginning of 2024, BTC prices have dropped mainly after FOMC decided to maintain the rates, which can be seen in the chart below.

A notable exception was the rally of February 2024, which also coincided with the launch of the first place BTC ETF. When the US interest rates were reduced on September 18, 2024 and November 7, 2024, Bitcoin gathered.

However, the third cut on December 18, 2024 did not give the same result. A miniature decrease by 25 base points up to 4.50% -4.75% meant the local Bitcoins price of the highest USD.

Deleverage markets before the FOMC, except that time

The key indicator that provides insight into market moods is the open interest of Bitcoin – the total number of derivative contracts, mainly 1 USD for eternal futures, which have not been resolved.

Historically, Bitcoin’s open interest falls before FOMC meetings, showing that traders reduce the lever and risk exposure, according to the chart based on Couminggass.

However, another pattern appeared this month. Despite the open percentage of Bitcoin in the amount of $ 12 billion at the beginning of this month, in the days preceding the FOMC there was no noticeable decrease in open interest in Bitcoin. The BTC price, however, has dropped, which is unusual and may indicate a robust directional plant.

It can also be a sign that traders feel fewer concerns about the Fed’s decision, probably expecting a neutral result. Supporting this view, the CME group Fedwatch The tool indicates 99%the probability that the FED will maintain the rate of 4.25%-4.50%.

If the rates remain unchanged, it is possible that the price of bitcoins will continue the current leprosy has dropped. It can be exactly what he hoped for a hyperlical whale when he opened a 40 -fold, miniature item worth over $ 500 million at the top. However, this position is now closed.

Related: Bitcoin Stall below 85,000 USD – Key BTC price levels to be viewed before FOMC

How do ETF Bitcoin react?

Unlike Bitcoin whails, investors at the ETF Bitcoin point historically unloaded BTC Holdings before FOMC meetings.

From the time when ETFS Spot BTC was launched in January 2024, according to Couminggass, most FOMC events coincided with ETF drains or, at most, a modest influx. A noteworthy exception was the previous highest in history the highest level of January 2025, when even point investors of ETF Bitcoin could not resist the desire to buy.

On March 17, ETF on Bitcoin in the Bitcoin spot recorded $ 275 million net inflow, which means passing from the month of outflows. This may signal a change in investors’ moods and expectations regarding the FED political decisions.

If ETF inflows grow before the FOMC, investors can predict a more pigeon Fed attitude, such as signaling future rate reductions or maintaining liquidity affable policies.

Investors can also charge bitcoins as a protection against uncertainty. This suggests that some institutional investors believe that Bitcoin will achieve well, regardless of the Fed decision.

Investors can also predict a possible miniature squeeze. If traders expected Bitcoin to fall and set up briefly, the sudden enhance in ETF inflow may play a role in the behavior of traders and cause a miniature squeeze.

After FOMC, the BTC price, along with the onchain data and the ETF flow will show whether the last activity was part of a long -term accumulation trend, or simply speculative positioning.

However, one thing that many traders agree now is that BTC can experience a significant price movement after the FOMC is announced. As Crypto Trader Master of Crypto, he placed it in the latest x post:

“Fomc is tomorrow and is expected to move a lot.”

Even without reduction of rates, the chance to issue a pigeon statement can raise markets, while their lack can enhance prices.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and commercial movement involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.