Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure because macroeconomic uncertainty still burdens its price campaign. After a powerful reflection from the local DNA near $ 75,000 on April 7 and 9, analysts begin to question whether BTC can prepare for the reversal of the downward trend, which has been going on from the beginning of the year.
For some, like an experienced trader Peter Brandt, this trend is nothing but Hopium. Like him excellent In your x post,
“From the whole structure of trend charts is the least significant. Violation of the trend line does not mean the transition of the BTC trend. I’m sorry.”
Others, however, see more reasons for cautious optimism. Kevin Svenson analyst Highlighted Possible weekly RSI breakthrough, indicating that “after confirming the weekly breakthrough signals RSI turned out to be one of the most reliable macro groundbreaking indicators.”
Ultimately, the price is powered by supply and demand – and although both sides of the equation begin to show subtle signs of recovery, they are still to reach the levels needed to the proper breakthrough. In addition, bulls must cut a dense sales wall of nearly USD 86,000 to confirm reversal.
Bitcoins demand – are there early signs of recovery?
According to Cryptquant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand -Murized by a 30-day net difference between the influx of exchange and drainage, “shows early recovery after a permanent decrease in the negative territory.
However, analysts warn against the premature announcement of the reversal of the trend. Looking back at the top of the 2021 cycle, similar conditions appeared: the demand remained low or negative for months, prices temporarily stable or reflected, and true structural recovery only occurred after prolonged consolidation.
This current increase in demand can simply mean a pause in the sale of pressure – not the final lower sign. Time and confirmation are still needed to confirm the shrink change.
From the trader’s point of view, the apparent demand indicator does not seem optimistic yet. According to Bitcoin Daily Trade Volumes, currently around 30,000 BTC (point) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives) Cryptochant. It is 6x and 3x, respectively, compared to the June 2021 period, which preceded the last course of the 2019-2022 cycle. Despite the hope of comparisons of current price drop in this period, the current dynamics of the volume suggests a more subdued appetite on the trader.
Institutional investors confirm the tendency of low demand. From April 3, ETFs on BTC have recorded continuous outflows with a total value of over $ 870 million, with the first modest influx until April 15. Despite this, commercial volumes remain relatively high-only 18% below the 30-day average-which indicates that some appetite of Bitcoin traps investors.
Related: Crypto for bears, reflection probably in Q3 – Coinbase
Delivery of bitcoins – will liquidity come back?
On the supply side, liquidity remains poor. According to the last Glassnode reportThe completed hat growth slowed down to 0.80% per month (from 0.83% earlier). This indicates a constant lack of a significant new capital entering the Bitcoin network and, as Glassnode notes, “remains well below the typical bull market thresholds.”
In addition, BTC oscillate In the stock exchanges-often used to assess the available liquidity on the sales side-a set to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level from November 2018.
However, at a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts see reasons for cautious hope. Independent market analyst Michael van de poppe indicated Fast M2 supply, which with some delay (here 12 weeks) often affected the price of bitcoins in the past.
“If the correlation remains, he wrote, I assume that in this quarter we will see Bitcoin to ATH. It would also mean an raise in CNH/USD, a decrease in crop, gold drop, a decrease in DXY and an raise in altcoins.”
Even if the stubborn rush and demand return, Bitcoin will have to clean the critical resistance zone between 86 300 to USD 86,500, as shown on Kinglas“The heat map of liquidity, which maps dense clusters of buying and selling orders at different levels.
Alpraction he adds Another layer of insight into your ALFA price chart, which includes a completed CAP, average cap and sentiments on Onchain – and can be given to the same conclusion. According to the BTC chart, it must definitely exceed USD 86,300 to restore low -term stubborn moods. If the price weakens again, support levels are 73,900 USD and 64,700 USD.
In general, causing the reversal of trends at this stage may be premature. The liquidity remains skinny, macroeconomic winds persist, and investors remain careful. Despite this, Bitcoin resistance above USD 80,000 signals powerful support from long -term owners. A decisive breakthrough above USD 86,300 can change market moods-in the best scenario, featherlight a up-to-date rally. However, for such a movement to be significant, it must be supported by the size of the spot market, and not just a leverage -related activity.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and commercial movement involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
