This week, Bitcoin broke the level of 100,000 USD, reaching USD 104,000 before moderated to around USD 103,000. The move took place after the news that we and Chinese officials sat in Switzerland to talk about a possible commercial agreement. Markets answered quickly. Optimism has returned and Bitcoin Rose, respectively. But the analysts see outside the headers. Global liquidity is a true story.

Global M2 reaches $ 111 trillion

Julien Bittel, Macro researcher at Global Macro Investor, is of the opinion that the global money supply of M2 is a good leading indicator of where Bitcoin is going. He presented a chart illustrating a 12-week delay between M2 growth and the price of the best cryptography. In compact, when M2 increases, Bitcoin occurs about three months later.

Many of you have asked for an updated global M2 vs. table. Bitcoin. Well, here …

And yes – he still tells the same story:

We are going higher … pic.twitter.com/kv7qse9ign

– Julien Miniature, CFA (@bittjulien) May 9, 2025

Between the beginning of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, the global M2 increased from 98 trillion dollars to just over $ 108 trillion. Bitcoin appeared, finally exceeding $ 100,000. But in mid -2024, M2 stopped joining for some time.

Bitcoin also narrowed, falling below USD 80,000 during this period. Bittel called this range as a consolidation phase. Today, M2 It moves again – worth. $ 111 trillion has passed. If this trend persists, BTC may grow until mid -20125.

Bittel said, “We’re going higher”, indicating a sturdy growth of global M2 as a signal.

Others think Bitcoin is the best dog

Not everyone agrees with Bittel’s schedule. The analyst Benjamin Cohen raised doubts as to the idea that cryptographic resource always lags behind changes in liquidity. He pointed out that Bitcoin reached the ups in 2017 and 2021 before M2 reached the summit. It does not match the theory of the leading BTC M2 by 12 weeks.

Cohen provided an alternative perspective. He believes that Bitcoin may also lead as well and changes in M2 appeared later. In this case, the recent erection of a coin may be sure that global liquidity can decrease in the coming months.

What if #Bitcoin It leads smoothness and does not delay?

Many people show this chart in which they will compensate for the global M2 by 3-4 months and show BTC after it.

The problem is that in 2021 this shift shows M2 will escalate for 6 months after the BTC summit. pic.twitter.com/gpkbw9jbog

– Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptooverse) May 8, 2025

The fall of FTX still resembles eh

Cohen also referred to what happened in 2022, when Bitcoin fell heavily. This decrease coincided with the bottom of M2 – but the drop lasted longer due to FTX defeat. He maintained that Bitcoin prices do not always adhere to the same time axis as M2. Exchange failures, such as an experienced one, can interfere with the rhythm.

This perspective discovers a different type of forecast. If BTC continues and does not lead, the current rally may indicate the risk of the horizon – not immunity.

A distinguished picture from Pexels, chart from TradingView

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