The price of Bitcoin (BTC) may return to USD 100,000 faster than investors were expected if they continue the early signs of separation from the American stock market and gold.
Source: Cory Bates / X
The report “Golden Lods, Bitcoin” begins
Bitcoin shrugged on the market caused by the global tariff of the US President Donald Trump.
While BTC initially dropped by over 3% to around USD 82,500, it eventually increased by about USD 4.5% to exceed USD 84,700. On the other hand, the S&P 500 fell this week by 10.65%, and gold – after reaching a record -breaking $ 3167 on April 3 – dropped by 4.8%.
BTC/USD vs. Gold and S&P 500 Daily Performance Faber. Source: Tradingview
Fresh divergence fuels the “gold-belter-bitcoin narrative”, taking directions from price trends from the end of 2018 to mid-2019 to predict a forceful price recovery compared to $ 100,000.
Gold started constant entrance, gaining almost 15% by mid -2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Shortly thereafter, Bitcoin’s breakthrough occurred, accumulated over 170% at the beginning of 2019, and then increased another 344% by the end of 2020.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three -day price chart. Source: Tradingview
“Recovering $ 100,000 would mean transferring from gold to BTC” he said Macroscope of the market analyst, adding:
“As in previous cycles, it would open the door to a new period of huge results through BTC in relation to gold and other assets.
The perspective adapted to the founder of Alpine Fox Mike Alfred, who shared the analysis of March 14, in which he expected Bitcoin to increase 10 times or more than gold based on previous cases.
Source: Mike Alfred / X
The bitcoin-to-gold indicator warns against the trap of the bull
Bitcoin may look at a decrease in the direction of $ 65,000, based on the bears Fractal Games in Bitcoin-to-Gold (BTC/Xau).
The BTC/Xau coefficient flashes a friend with a model that traders recently saw in 2021. The division took place after the second main support test with an interpretation average of the movable 50-2W.
BTC/XAU coefficient of a two -week chart. Source: Tradingview
BTC/Xau now repeats this fractal and once again test red with 50 as support.
In the previous Bitcoin cycle they consolidated around the same EMA level before they broke definitely lower, ultimately finding support at EMA 200-2W (blue wave). If the story repeats, BTC/Xau can be on a deeper correction, especially if the macro conditions have deteriorated.
Interestingly, these decay cycles coincided with a decrease in Bitcoin in dollars, as shown below.
BTC/USD 2W price graph. Source: Tradingview
In the case of a fractal repeat, the initial Bitcoin target may be EMA 50-2W around USD 65,000, and additional sales suggest declines below USD 20,000, which is compliance with EMA 200-2W.
On the other hand, the reflection of BTC/XAU 50-2W may annul the fractal bears.
The US recession would weld the stubborn Bitcoin perspectives
From the basic perspective of the Bitcoin price perspective, they appear skewed in the minus.
Investors are afraid that the global tariff war of President Donald Trump can keep a full trade war and cause a recession in the USA. Risk assets, such as bitcoins, usually have worse results during business contractions.
Related: Bitcoin ‘deviates, shares lose 3.5 thousand. As the Trump’s tariff war and fed the warning about “higher inflation”
Further suppressing moods, on April 4, chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell pushed into the expectations of short -term interest rates.
Powell warned that the progress of inflation remains uneven, signaling a long -lasting environment that can increase the pressure to the top of Bitcoin’s momentum.
Nevertheless, most bond traders see three more rates of rates to the September FED meeting, according to CME data.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and commercial movement involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
