Key results:

• Bitcoin dropped by USD 103,500 because traders reduced the risk before the decision of the FOMC tomorrow.

• Technical data indicate that the price of bitcoins is reflected from 102,000 to USD 104,000.

• Onchain data shows that the midbreate owners are aware of significant profits over the past month.

The Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to USD 103,300 after traders began to reduce the risk of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the following decision on the interest rate, which will be made public on Wednesday. The correction is approaching the bear weekly candle, which suggests the reversal of trends, while geopolitical tensions-especially the conflict of Israel-Iran-adds to the mood of risk.

According to Bitcoin vectorSupported by a Swiss market aggregator, a decline is not only powered by macro. It adapts to the seasonal weakness and growth of the network on the market, indicating the coldness of demand. Over $ 434 million Futures in BTC has been liquidated on the last day, emphasizing that the current movement is largely based on the lever, and traders decide carefully than a up-to-date exhibition.

Still, bitcoin Premium coins Index – the indicator comparing BTC prices in Coinbase and Binance remained positive for most of June, signaling constant demand on the point of American investors. However, this demand had a constrained impact on the price due to the wider market caution.

Further pressure came from the activity of gaining profits among “owners in the middle of the cycle” (6-12 months) who He realized $ 904 million On Monday, according to Glassnode. This Kohorta constituted 83% of total profits, a noteworthy transition from long-term or over 12-month-old owners who previously conducted the implementation of profits. The change suggests rotation of market dynamics, with more reactive participants secure profits during recent ups.

Despite this, investors’ long -term behavior is hopeful perspectives. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. excellent This long -term owners (LTH) still refrain from gigantic -scale expenses, a historically stubborn pattern.

A fit result from MVRV-Indicating BTC remains essentially underestimated-and positive coin days (CDD) indicate selective profits, not panic. Similar configurations in previous cycles preceded 18-25% of rallies within 6-8 weeks, which means a potential target price of USD 130,000 until the end of the quarter.

Related: Bitcoin threatens $ 104,000 “Carpet” because the trader claims that the main movement will only come

Bitcoin can be $ 102,000 at the bottom, here’s

From a technical point of view, Bitcoin may approach the brief -term DNA from 102,000 to USD 104,000, where a dense liquidity pocket and a historic order block intersect.

Bollinger bands are another reason for the potential average return about USD 102,000. As shown in the chart, a faster technical response from USD 102,000 is expected due to the proximity of the middle band, i.e., about USD 106,000 acting as energetic resistance, strengthened by historical price respect at this level (e.g. consolidation at the beginning of June).

Bollinger strands also squeeze, signaling the approaching leap of variability, while the middle belt, which is almost USD 106,000, acts as energetic resistance. Successful recovery and closing above USD 106,748 may confirm the stubborn mean return in the direction of USD 112,000. And vice versa, a pure break below 100,000 USD may annul the configuration and direct USD 98,000.

Data from alpraction It also shows USD 98,300 as key support in which brief -term owners (STHS) remain from profit. Violation of this threshold can tilt the structure towards deeper correction. As the alpraft noted:

“As long as Bitcoin remains above the price of STH, we can still consider the market as stubborn. The script would only change if BTC loses USD 98,000, which can cause a deeper drop.”

Related: Watch these levels of bitcoin prices before the Fed speech of President Powell

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and commercial movement involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.